This X-factor could derail 49ers' chances of getting back to Super Bowl in 2024

The 49ers want nothing less than a Super Bowl crown after falling just short last season, but there's one potential problem in their way.

Losing a Super Bowl is deflating.

But the 2020 San Francisco 49ers seemed undeterred after their first crushing Super Bowl loss to the Kansas City Chiefs, and they vowed to enact a "revenge tour" that year in order to finally hoist the franchise's sixth Lombardi Trophy.

Well, that didn't happen.

The Niners whimpered to a 6-10 finish, ending up in last place within the NFC West. And they'd have to wait until the 2023 season to get back into the Super Bowl where they'd lose again to KC in heartbreaking fashion.

So, naturally, expectations for San Francisco are mirroring what took place back in 2020.

But there's one proverbial "elephant in the room."

49ers must be fearful of injury-plagued 2024 season

Fans can recall what happened in 2020. In Week 2, the 49ers lost Pro Bowl defensive end Nick Bosa to a season-ending ACL tear, which foreshadowed a laundry list of significant injuries to star players.

Quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, tight end George Kittle, wide receiver Deebo Samuel, running back Raheem Mostert and many other top contributors went down with serious injuries over the course of the year, and the Niners endured arguably the worst injury-prone year in franchise history.

According to Football Outsiders' AGL metric (now defunct) that year, it was by far the worst in the league.

History is already working against San Francisco in terms of Super Bowl-losing teams turning around and winning the Super Bowl a year later (the 2018 New England Patriots were the last team to achieve this rarity), but staying healthy is an X-factor the 49ers have to achieve in 2024.

Injury-prone Niners stars, such as Samuel, tight end George Kittle, left tackle Trent Williams and running back Christian McCaffrey, almost entirely avoided injuries that cut into their playing time last year.

The only serious injury loss to a starter in 2023 was safety Talanoa Hufanga's ACL tear, but that was largely mitigated by the ascent of then-rookie Ji'Ayir Brown.

San Francisco might not get so lucky in 2024 if the law of averages swings the opposite direction from last season's relatively injury-free campaign.

If the injury bug opts to bite the 49ers hard this year, as it did to them in 2020, then 2024 could be yet another disappointing season.

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