Why playing for Steelers would be disastrous for Brandon Aiyuk's career
After a few peaceful days without Brandon Aiyuk trade rumors, we're [sigh] officially back. For now, Aiyuk is still a 49er, but from the latest reporting out there, it sorta sounds more and more like that won't be the case much longer.
According to the NFL's Ian Rapoport, "the Steelers and 49ers have a deal on a potential trade, and Pittsburgh is in a good place on an Aiyuk contract." He also reported that the Niners have offered Aiyuk a new contract extension, but Aiyuck hasn't accepted it.
So with all that in mind, let's get out ahead of everyone else and start coping now. Aiyuk leaving the 49ers never made much sense from anything other than a financial angle, and if the 49ers have actually offered him a comparable deal – which is a big 'if' – then there's very little about going to the Steelers that, on the surface at least, benefits him. Here's why!
There are three obvious reasons why Aiyuk going to PIT is a weird move
1. The Quarterbacks
I'm not here to get into a Brock Purdy debate, mostly because I love and cherish what little sanity I have left after a summer of these rumors. But Purdy is undeniably better than either of the two guys that Aiyuk would be catching passes from in Pittsburgh. Looking at trusty ol' PFF, Purdy's overall grade (87.4) was the 6th best number of any QB in the NFL. Russell Wilson's? 18th. Justin Fields' was 21st – and only that high because of a stellar run grade. Both Wilson and Fields' pass-only grade was significantly lower. Aiyuk's the kind of player who makes his QB better, but elevating Wilson or Fields to the level that the Steelers would expect, given the presumptive terms of the deal, is a big ask.
2. The Offense
For everything that the Shannahan offense is, the Arthur Smith offense is not. Aiyuk would be going from exactly the type of offense that suits his abilities as a skill player to one that, uh, does not. And to be clear, he's plenty good enough to succeed in either – but positional fit isn't an insignificant factor in a player's success, and heavy sets with a lot of early-down running isn't exactly the type of offense that, historically, wide recievers have a great time in. (Though the good news for Steelers fans is that Aiyuk ranked as one of the better pass-blocking wide receivers in football last year.) Maybe once he gets his contract extension the idea maxing out his pass-catching stats matters way less, but going from being consistently schemed open in a pass-happy West Coast(ish) scheme to blocking in two tight end sets on 3rd and 7 is going to be a rude awakening.
3. The Winning
Mike Tomlin's record in Pittsburgh speaks for itself. He's never had a losing season, which is one of the more underrated stats in football right now even *before* you look at some of the teams he dragged to .500. But does a Wilson/Fields-led team that runs the ball a whole lot sound like Super Bowl contender? There's nothing wrong with perpetually playing in that first Wild Card game on NFL Network that everyone forgets is on, but my guess is that doesn't quite compare with consistently being in the NFC Championship game. The 49ers are thoroughly in the Super Bowl windows of all Super Bowl windows, and there isn't a team outside of Kansas City that has a better chance of going back multiple times over the next half-dozen seasons. Sometimes a change of scenery isn't a bad idea, but this specific one feels a bit like contract leverage gone to far.
That's all the coping I have in me right now. Be sure to check back in when he actually gets traded!