Thursday Night Football betting trend says bet on 49ers in Week 3 vs. Giants
The 49ers are heavily favored against the Giants, but they still could be a great bet.
By Peter Dewey
The San Francisco 49ers are 2-0 on the season, and they find themselves heavily favored against a banged up New York Giants team on Thursday night.
New York won't have running back Saquon Barkley, left tackle Andrew Thomas, or pass rusher Azeez Ojulari on Thursday, which should make things easier on the 49ers.
The #Giants have ruled out vs the #49ers: RB Saquon Barkley (ankle), OL Ben Bredeson (concussion), LB Azeez Ojulari (hamstring), and LT Andrew Thomas (hamstring).
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) September 20, 2023
San Francisco is favored by 10.5 points in this game, and that number is significant because of a betting trend associated with double-digit underdogs on Thursday.
Since 2005, double-digit dogs have failed to cover nearly 64 percent of the time in Thursday games.
Giants vs. 49ers odds, spread and total for Week 3
Double-digit underdogs struggle on Thursday
If you're thinking of betting on the 49ers -- like I am this week -- then you should feel good to have this trend in your corner.
Giants +10 at 49ers.
— John Ewing (@johnewing) September 20, 2023
Since 2005, double-digit underdogs on Thursday have gone 12-21 ATS per @Bet_Labs. https://t.co/QrZi8Jbhka
The Giants have not looked good this season, struggling to score in their first six quarters before turning things around in the second half against the Arizona Cardinals last week.
Not only have double-digit underdogs been bad, but Giants quarterback Daniel Jones has been awful in primetime in his career. He's gone just 1-10 straight up.
Daniel Jones is 1-10 in primetime games, which is the worst record of any QB with at least 10 starts since 1970. He's averaged 13.9 PPG in those games.
— Michael Fabiano (@Michael_Fabiano) September 21, 2023
Brock Purdy is 3-0 ATS the spread at home (3 starts). He is 5-2 ATS overall.
The 49ers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home…
With Barkley out, the 49ers defense should have a field day against a New York offense that lacks a solid replacement at the position. I'd consider laying the 10.5 points with San Fran in this game.
After all, the team won by 23 on the road in Week 1 before winning by seven (thanks to a last-second field goal) against the Los Angeles Rams in Week 2.
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
Find Peter Dewey's betting record here.