Key stats show that Brock Purdy could be undervalued in NFL MVP odds
two straightI think it's officially safe to say the San Francisco 49ers are back on track after hitting a bump in the road in the three weeks heading into their BYE Week. Now, they've won two-straight games since coming off their break and look like top Super Bowl contenders.
But, what about their quarterback? Despite being leading the 49ers stout offense and being the first QB since the '80s to throw a perfect game for San Francisco, Brock Purdy still isn't getting the respect he deserves in the MVP conversation.
Let's take a look at his latest MVP odds and then I'll break down why now's the time to place your bet on him winning the award.
Brock Purdy MVP Odds
After Week 11 of the NFL season, Brock Purdy is listed at +1600 to be named the NFL MVP. That's behind the likes of Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Tua Tagovailoa, and even Dak Prescott at some sportsbooks.
You can look at all the straightforward stats you want, like passing yards and touchdowns, but the best way to truly evaluate a quarterback is some of the most advanced analytics. When you look at this, Purdy leads every quarterback in the NFL.
He's first in yards per pass attempt, EPA + CPOE, and QBR. There may not be any stats that are more indicative of dominant play than those.
I'm with Jay.
— Matthew Freedman (@MattFtheOracle) November 20, 2023
Granted, we both have longshot positions on Purdy -- so we're talking our bag -- but Purdy is No. 1 in AY/A, EPA + CPOE, and QBR.
If you had to pick three stats to predict MVP, those are the ones.
If the 49ers get the No. 1 seed, I'd expect Purdy to be MVP. https://t.co/ey6kaRxk0H
Despite that all being said, he's still significantly behind the odds list compared to the likes of Mahomes, Hurts, Jackson, and Tagvailoa.
Will this keep up, or is it only a matter of time for the odds to catch up to his level of play? The 49ers have some big games coming up, including a Thanksgiving showdown against the Seattle Seahawks, a Week 13 game against the Philadelphia Eagles, and a Christmas Day matchup with the Baltimore Ravens.
If Purdy can shine in those games and continue to lead the NFL in those aforementioned stats, I think he's going to be a shoo-in to win the award.
If you want to place a bet on him to win NFL MVP, and I think you should, then you should do so at FanDuel Sportsbook. Not only are they offering some of the best odds on him to win as of writing this article, but if you click the link below to sign up for an account, you'll receive $150 in bonus bets if your first $5 wager on a game wins!
Bet on Brock Purdy to win NFL MVP at FanDuel now!
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.