Deebo Samuel faces a future of uncertainty with 49ers amid rising roster costs

Are the 49ers still committed to Deebo Samuel long term, or is he entering what'll be his final season in the red and gold?

2024 might be the last season in which the San Francisco 49ers' top-two wide receivers, Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel, stay on the field together.

Or it might have already happened, provided the Niners opt to trade off Aiyuk amid his own contract-extension stalemate, as rumors of a would-be trade have started to resurface once more.

Or San Francisco could finally lock Aiyuk up on a long-term deal despite an increasingly expensive roster and what'll soon be a lucrative contract dished out to quarterback Brock Purdy in 2025.

But even that creates uncertainty for Samuel.

The 28-year-old Samuel has put up solid numbers since his one-and-only first-team All-Pro campaign back in 2021 that helped net a sizable contract extension of his own the following offseason. Yet those statistical efforts haven't come close to the kind of numbers that would warrant top dollar on the open market.

However, Samuel's mere presence on the field -- both as a receiver and a rusher -- have helped turn head coach Kyle Shanahan's offense into a potent force, and the 49ers unquestionably recognize that, too.

So, while it's possible Samuel could wind up becoming a cap casualty amid the Niners' rising roster costs, it's just as likely he remains a cornerstone piece for the foreseeable future.

What is Deebo Samuel's current contract with the 49ers?

Samuel is under contract with San Francisco for two more years, scheduled to become a free agent in 2026.

According to Over the Cap, his cap hits in 2024 and 2025 are up to $28.6 million and $24.2 million, respectively.

However, if the 49ers opt to trade or release Samuel with a post-June 1 designation next offseason, it'd generate $17.57 in cap savings against a sizable-but-manageable $6.63 million in dead money, which would aid them in executing Purdy's eventual extension and getting below the 2025 salary cap (OTC currently projects the Niners to be $38.9 million above the cap next year).

Samuel could also agree to take a pay cut, which doesn't seem likely but is part of what's becoming a long list of possible outcomes.

What are the X-factors facing Deebo Samuel's future?

Retaining both Aiyuk and Samuel long term is a luxury San Francisco doesn't appear to have. Sure, the 49ers could squeeze as much time out of the duo as possible, but that tenure is likely closer to the end than it is to the beginning.

The biggest X-factor, of course, is Purdy's contract extension. His miniscule rookie deal allowed the Niners to splurge elsewhere on the roster, but that won't be the case in a year or two, leading to the need to trim costs elsewhere.

That helps account for reasons why no deal for Aiyuk has been reached, creating another X-factor: Does San Francisco commit to Aiyuk long term? Or will he play out the final year of his own contract before hitting the open market in 2025? Or will Aiyuk get hit with the franchise tag, which still costs plenty of money and could potentially force the 49ers to deal Samuel?

And what about rookie wide receiver Ricky Pearsall?

Pearsall, the Niners' top pick from the 2024 NFL Draft, is viewed as a long-term heir apparent to either Samuel or Aiyuk. But his maturation is in its infancy, meaning it's still at a "wait and see" stage so early into the rookie's career.

Should Pearsall show signs of thriving, it could spell the end of Samuel and/or Aiyuk's time in a San Francisco uniform sooner than later.

There are a lot of variables yet to play out here, of course, but that uncertainty is unavoidable.

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