Christian McCaffrey is due for a statistical decline in 2024 (and that's OK)

It's going to be hard (if not impossible) for Christian McCaffrey to match the jaw-dropping numbers he enjoyed last year.

There was no better offensive-performing player in the NFL last year than the San Francisco 49ers' own, All-Pro running back Christian McCaffrey.

A finalist for league MVP, the 2023 Offensive Player of the Year was the featured component to a star-studded Niners offense, leading the league not only in rush yards (1,459) but also in total touches (339), net touchdowns (21) and all-purpose yards (2,023).

That's outstanding and then some.

The 2017 first-round NFL draftee out of Stanford, whom San Francisco acquired via trade from the Carolina Panthers in 2022, subsequently received a hefty pay increase this offseason despite already being the top-paid running back in all of football. While a new deal seemed excessive on the surface, the 49ers clearly view him as an all-encompassing weapon. Not just a rusher.

That said, it's hard to fathom McCaffrey backing up his 2023 efforts with another MVP-like year in 2024.

Christian McCaffrey will statistically regress in 2024

The kind of numbers McCaffrey put up last season are more indicative of a "once in a lifetime" kind of season and less of a perennial expectation. True, McCaffrey did something similar back in 2019 when he became part of the NFL's exclusive 1,000/1,000 club (1,000 yards rushing and 1,000 yards receiving).

But expecting him to produce at such a high level in back-to-back years is a reach no matter what.

McCaffrey, who does have an injury history, avoided any such setback last season but rarely came off the field. The Niners took their chances with this risk, and it paid off.

However, it doesn't appear as if that'll be the case again in 2024.

"We have to protect Christian from himself," head coach Kyle Shanahan told The Athletic earlier this offseason. "He doesn't like to ever come out no matter what the situation is and I do think that's something we could protect him with more. When you are such a threat in the pass game, it's a little bit different. …

"But if he's just taking the wear and tear with 20 carries and stuff every game -- and he's definitely good enough to do that and he has proved he can stay healthy -- but you'd like to take some of that off of him and give it to other guys also."

San Francisco already has Elijah Mitchell and Jordan Mason on the roster in support of McCaffrey, and it drafted another running back in Isaac Guerendo last April, too.

What'll likely be the case this season is for Shanahan to decrease McCaffrey's touches, especially if the 49ers are out to comfortable leads, hoping the team's best all-around offensive weapon can be kept safe from injury while staying fresh for what hopes to be a deep postseason run.

That's a good objective for the Niners to have.

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