49ers roster 2023: Trey Lance is now San Francisco's most polarizing player (with an uncertain future)

Trey Lance has gone from being the 49ers' future at quarterback to a mere afterthought and third-stringer, creating quite a debate in the process.

A year ago at this time, perhaps the most polarizing player on the San Francisco 49ers roster was quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, which wasn't surprising. He was the lame duck, a popular player who was going to be shown the door because of what the team did the season before in using serious capital to draft Jimmy G's replacement, Trey Lance.

Following what effectively became a lost season in 2022, thanks to a season-ending ankle injury in Week 2, Lance is now looking more and more like the lame duck, while second-year pro Brock Purdy is poised to be San Francisco's starter and long-term figurehead going forward.

It might not be the wrong call. After all, Purdy went 5-0 in his regular-season finish to 2022 and helped carry the 49ers all the way to the NFC Championship game, only to suffer a serious torn UCL in his throwing elbow during that contest that required offseason surgery.

Despite Lance being healthy at the start of offseason workouts, all signs still point to Purdy being No. 1 on the depth chart.

And Lance is still looked at as the inexperienced and raw player on whom the Niners took a massive gamble but have since soured.

While there are some conclusions that can be drawn from the stats and data, the overarching takeaway is that Lance is still a massive unknown commodity. And he's still only 23 years old entering year three of his pro career.

That said, despite all the investment and the potential upside, Lance is now the polarizing figure who appears to be trending quickly in the wrong direction.

What led to Trey Lance's dramatic downfall with 49ers?

There are plenty of reasons to dispute any notion that San Francisco is no longer enamored with Lance, including NBC Sports Bay Area's Matt Maiocco saying, "they like him more now" than ever.

Plenty of veteran leaders within the 49ers locker room have come to Lance's defense, too.

But let's look at some of the indicators that Lance is no longer on the ascent with the franchise after a mere four regular-season starts dating back to 2021:

• Lance goes 1-1 in each season over his four starts
• Lance suffers a season-ending injury in his second game as a full-time starter
• Purdy ascends in relief of Garoppolo to finish out 2022 season
• Niners sign free-agent QB Sam Darnold to compete for No. 2 spot on depth chart
• John Lynch effectively endorses Purdy as San Francisco's starter

Read the last bullet point. Yes, the 49ers' general manager essentially crowned a still-injured Purdy as the starter moving forward. It would have been reasonable to say the Niners were opening the door to a competition between Lance, Purdy and even Darnold.

But, no. Lynch explicitly said it was Purdy's job to lose.

Tack on an offseason full of trade rumors and speculation for the No. 3 overall pick from the 2021 draft, and it's not hard to see the direction in which Lance is trending.

The only question is whether or not San Francisco wants to get something back in return for its lofty investment, even if it's nothing close to what was given up, or if the team is willing to wait things out to help determine a more conclusive outcome.

How much are the 49ers paying Trey Lance in 2023?

It's not necessarily a bad thing to have Lance stay on the roster this season, at least financially.

While top-five draft picks command a lot of money, relatively speaking, they're still cheap-ish commodities. Particularly quarterbacks of the starting-caliber variety.

According to Spotrac, Lance is going to count for $9.3 million against the salary cap this season as part of the four-year, $34.1 million rookie contract he signed not long after being drafted.

That's high-quality backup-kind of money, and it affords San Francisco the luxury of keeping Lance, Darnold and Purdy on the roster while spending heavily in other areas.

But, will Lance be dealt prior to Week 1 as speculation has said?

Will the 49ers keep or trade Trey Lance before the regular season?

Here's where the debates get interesting.

There should be little doubting the proverbial "writing on the wall" being there for Lance. Perhaps he has an electrifying training camp and preseason, while Purdy somehow regresses in year two, either because of his injury or simply because he overachieved immensely last year.

In all likelihood, though, the 49ers are holding onto Lance and hoping that a best-case trade scenario winds up happening at some point.

Whenever.

It could be later this summer, perhaps in training camp at a point when another team loses its starting quarterback to an injury, which is what NFL Network's Ian Rapoport suggested.

Or, perhaps, someone like NFL.com's Adam Rank might be correct in a prediction that says the Niners have no need to trade any of their quarterbacks right now and can afford (financially) to let a yearlong competition between the three pan out before making any trade-related conclusive decision.

About the only hard deadline for any of this is the NFL trade deadline in October.

Should Lance wind up not winning the starting job to open up the season, which seems to be the top prediction, speculation of such movement won't go away until something else decisive comes along.

And that'll be yet another highlight point in what has otherwise been a dramatic fall from grace so far for the young quarterback.

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