49ers' red-zone woes are actually much worse than you think

Through five weeks, the 49ers have been miserable in the red zone, and the reasons why are awfully hard to solve.

Football gurus often argue that games are won or lost because of three specific figures: turnovers, third-down conversions and success in the red zone.

For the San Francisco 49ers, it's been a lack thereof in the final metric over the first five weeks.

At 2-3, and despite the Niners boasting the No. 9 scoring offense to date, head coach Kyle Shanahan's offense isn't quite clicking where it needs to. Particularly in the red zone where putting up seven points instead of three can be so crucial.

Granted, this isn't the first time a Shanahan offense has struggled at this portion of the field. Even prior to becoming San Francisco's head coach in 2017, Shanahan's offenses have endured some pretty pitiful numbers inside opponents' 20-yard lines.

Despite notable success in more recent years, it appears as if 2024 is trending back toward Shanahan's previous issues.

And the numbers prove it.

49ers' red-zone offense is bad, like... really bad

Shanahan's first two 49ers offenses finished 27th and 32nd in the red zone in 2017 and 2018, respectively.

The 2024 version, which boasts far more talent across the board, is right in that area. In fact, through five weeks, the Niners' red-zone touchdown percentage is a mere 40.91.

That's third-worst in the NFL, above only the offensively challenged Miami Dolphins (36.36 percent) and the New England Patriots (30.77).

10 worst red-zone offenses through Week 5

1. New England Patriots: 30.77
2. Miami Dolphins: 36.36
3. San Francisco 49ers: 40.91
4. Atlanta Falcons: 42.86
5. New York Giants: 43.75
6. Denver Broncos: 43.75
7. Los Angeles Chargers: 44.44
8. Jacksonville Jaguars: 44.44
9. Los Angeles Rams: 45.0
10. Kansas City Chiefs: 45.45*

* will play on Monday Night Football in Week 5

Aside from the Pats, every one-win team across the board has a better red-zone touchdown percentage than San Francisco, including the hapless Jags and Carolina Panthers (50.0 percent).

Bad red-zone offenses for those teams make sense. However, given the plethora of offensive weapons at Shanahan's disposal, including tight end George Kittle, wide receivers Jauan Jennings and Deebo Samuel, and quarterback Brock Purdy, it's a mystery why the 49ers haven't found pay dirt more frequently.

The players may not necessarily know why either.

How will 49ers go about fixing red-zone woes?

There isn't exactly a clear-cut answer to solving issues in the red zone. The personnel is there, outside of injured running back Christian McCaffrey, and the Niners haven't been overwhelmed by playing elite defenses aside from Weeks 1 and 2 against the New York Jets and Minnesota Vikings, respectively.

According to Purdy, it's simply a matter of better execution inside the 20-yard line.

"I'm the guy with the ball, being aggressive to certain guys and matchups and giving guys chances, and so I've just got to be hard on myself with that," Purdy said after the Cardinals loss. "Obviously, you want to be smart and protect the ball, but when we got a matchup and a good look, we've got to rip it.

"I've just got to be better and more aggressive down there and then just collectively as a unit, offensive unit, once we get down there, like all of us, our mindset has to be, 'We gotta punch this in.' Obviously, we know we can settle for field goal. We've got to hold ourselves to a higher standard and cross the goal line."

This sounds like the right mentality. But it doesn't exactly address the schematic "Xs and Os" solutions Shanahan, Purdy and the rest of the offense need to propose. And, oddly enough, Purdy's red-zone passer rating is 106.3, the highest of any portion of the field this season.

Perhaps better efficiency between Purdy and one of his better red-zone weapons, wide receiver Jauan Jennings and his 6-foot-3 frame, needs to be in order.

In the red zone, Jennings has only three receptions on seven targets, two of them going for scores.

Inside the 10-yard line, there's just one catch out of five targets.

But that's just one plausible solution. There are plenty of others, many of which won't be determined until they're, well... actuallly determined.

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