What could 49ers get back in a Trey Lance trade?

The 49ers aren't going to simply cut an underachieving Trey Lance, but they may look to trade him soon. What would they accept, though?

San Francisco 49ers quarterback Trey Lance's stock value has never been lower than it is right now in the wake of a less-than-inspiring performance in Week 1 of the preseason against the Las Vegas Raiders.

With a mere four regular-season starts under his belt since the Niners traded up to grab him at No. 3 overall in the 2021 NFL Draft, and in the wake of San Francisco naming second-year pro Brock Purdy the starting quarterback going forward, Lance's future is anything but certain.

And he's not exactly receiving rave reviews from the national media. All one has to do is fast-forward to the end of Bally Sports' Annie Agar's preseason Week 1 spoof to see that Lance is getting no shortage of criticism:

Purdy is the guy. Fellow quarterback Sam Darnold, with his $3.5 million guaranteed, is also going to be on the roster.

Cutting Lance, as some have suggested, would be financially irresponsible for a 49ers team already pressed up against the salary cap. According to Over the Cap, waiving Lance would cost $14.6 million in dead money and would actually carve into the Niners' dwindling cap space by $5.3 million instead of generating any space.

A trade, though? That would make more sense if San Francisco deemed moving him necessary.

What would 49ers get in return for trading Trey Lance? One NFL reporter has a shocking answer

During the draft last April, NFL Network's Ian Rapoport reported the 49ers weren't going to trade Lance despite earlier speculation that it could happen.

Rapoport did say, however, the Niners may look to move Lance later in the summer, perhaps in August when other teams' quarterbacking situations aren't quite as optimistic or healthy as they were during draft season.

Well, we're in August now.

But what would San Francisco get in exchange for Lance? Again, his stock value has never been lower, and no team is going to send off anything close to the kind of investment the 49ers made back in 2021: three first-round draft picks and a third-round pick. And it's also feasible the Niners simply bide their time and wait for things to develop rather than actively shop Lance and trade him to the highest bidder, no matter how low that bid might be.

That said, The Athletic's Tim Kawakami has an estimate of what San Francisco would potentially accept for the former North Dakota State quarterback right now (h/t 49ers Webzone).

"What could the 49ers get for Lance?" Tim Kawakami wrote. "In this scenario, I think they'd likely take a conditional fourth-round pick (based on 2023 playing time) in a blink. If I'm a QB-needy team without Super Bowl-or-bust pressures, I'd make that trade."

Would 49ers actually trade Trey Lance for a 4th-round pick?

A conditional Round 4 pick that could turn into a third-rounder if Lance plays a lot this year.

If that's not the NFL equivalent of "pennies on the dollar," what is?

However, a trade would make sense in many regards. For one, it would give Lance what's probably a much-needed fresh start somewhere else. And while the Niners would get criticized for making what could be one of the worst trades in franchise history, they'd still get criticized the same if Lance stayed on the roster as a mere backup, only to be let go via free agency once his contract expires in 2024.

There's no way San Francisco would pick up his fifth-year option at this point, right?

And, rather than letting him walk that way, the 49ers would have a guaranteed pick in hand instead of waiting on a possible compensatory pick, should he sign a deal elsewhere that would qualify and the Niners suffer a net loss of qualifying free agents after 2024.

In what would likely be a bad situation either way, at least San Francisco would be receiving something in return.

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