Sadly, the San Francisco 49ers have come to recognize how star defensive end Nick Bosa has turned into an injury-prone player.
A year removed from his second NFL-level torn ACL, Bosa is now poised to be sidelined several weeks with a calf injury suffered in practice ahead of Week 3, marking the third year in a row the 2019 first-round draftee will have failed to play a full 17-game season.
Unfortunately for both Bosa and the Niners, 2026 was going to be a pivotal year, especially when looking at the financial terms of his current contract.
It's one thing to evaluate the production, which has steadily dropped since his Defensive Player of the Year campaign in 2022:
- 2022: 18.5 sacks
- 2023: 10.5 sacks
- 2024: 9 sacks
- 2025: 2 sacks
But, when slicing apart his five-year, $170 million contract signed back in 2023, it's not hard to say the soon-to-be 29 year old may no longer fit into San Francisco's long-term plans.
Nick Bosa injury could force 49ers to move on from him in 2027
Bosa will count for just under $23 million against the 49ers' salary cap this season, yet that number jumps significantly in 2027: $54.87 million, yet less than a million of that is guaranteed.
As Sports Illustrated's Albert Breer wrote back in May, 2026 was going to be pivotal in determining how the Niners handled their best edge rusher:
If he rings up a dozen sacks, and offenses have to double him and slide protection to him, the cash he’s due in 2027 ($33.18 million) is reasonable relative to where the market at his position has gone, and the cap numbers can be managed. If he gets hurt or slips, then we’re talking about another situation altogether.
It appears as if "another situation altogether" has become reality.
A post-June 1 release this upcoming offseason would still cost San Francisco over $22 million in dead money, but it'd generate nearly $32.5 million in cap space, according to Over the Cap. In light of Bosa's extended injury history, combined with both his drop in production and increased age, it certainly is an avenue the 49ers will explore.
Particularly when considering they're projected to be more than $31 million over the 2027 salary cap.
49ers haven't exactly planned for Nick Bosa's departure
Unfortunately, the Niners have done awfully little by the way of trying to replace Bosa, particularly with a marquee pass-rusher.
In 2025, they used a Round 1 draft pick on defensive end Mykel Williams, whose own ACL tear last year has seriously hindered his development. 2026 rookie edge rusher Romello Height has some promise, but as far as prolific value goes, he's far from having a Bosa-like impact.
Either way, there isn't much by the way of an adequate Bosa fill-in, and the fact San Francisco had a league-low 20 sacks in 2025, stemming largely from his ACL-related absence, is about as good an indicator of such.
One can hope the 49ers have at least explored some contingency plans for this scenario ahead of time, preparing themselves to address the need, both if Bosa stays or if he's ultimately released in 2027.
If not, the Niners will certainly find themselves in a major pinch.
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