One of the biggest buzzwords in the sports world is “analytics.” It’s been a divisive word in baseball for years, and in recent years it’s crept into football vernacular, particularly when it comes to the influx of teams going for it on fourth down. San Francisco 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan recently made some comments on analytics that upset its proponents, which is part of why he is such a good NFL coach.
Matt Maiocco of NBC Sports Bay Area asked Shanahan how much he relies on analytics for in-game decisions, and Shanahan’s answer was revealing:
“I don’t want to hear about it if it’s 51% of the time we should go for it… As I always say, I’m not sitting here playing Blackjack for an hour with no one else at the table, and eventually I’ll get 51% of it. Like, I have this one try, and I have a feel for it. I’ve been doing it too long.”
Analytics gurus won't like Shanahan's rationale, but he won't care
Brian Burke of ESPN, an analytics specialist, tried to suggest Shanahan's thinking was flawed by writing: "If Kyle had to bet his life on predicting whether he chooses a red ball or a blue ball from a jar, and he was informed there are 51 red balls and 49 blue, which color should he predict?"
Yet, that's a false equivalency because the "analytics" saying going for it on fourth down has a 51-percent success rate does not mean if you went for it one hundred times you'd get the first down 51 times
It's a prediction based on data, sure, but it has its limitations. It does not take into account all of the various factors that matter, like how the defense is playing, whether the coach has a play dialed up he trusts, if his top target is healthy, and all sorts of other considerations.
Kyle Shanahan has some old school in him that defies the modern game
Shanahan's answer is what differentiates him from some of the other coaches around the NFL, like Detroit Lions head coach Dan Campbell or Chicago Bears head coach Ben Johnson. Those guys like going for it almost reflexively and seem to trust the analytics over anything else in those coin-flip situations that Shanahan described.
Shanahan is typically one of the more conservative head coaches in the NFL when it comes to going for it. San Francisco had the second-fewest fourth-down conversion attempts from 2021 to 2025 according to PFF. That isn’t a shock given Shanahan likes to pick and choose his spots of aggression on fourth down.
Rarely, if ever, have we seen him go for it when the Niners have yet to cross the 50-yard line unless they’re down late and need a conversion to have any chance to win. More and more NFL coaches are going for it on short distance even if they’re well within their own territory, which is far too risky for my taste.
In a way, the modern NFL treats the game like it’s Madden, where everyone goes for it and if it works, the coach looks like a genius. But 49ers fans remember the NFC Championship Game a few years ago against the Lions when Campbell went for it on fourth down multiple times, didn’t get it, and gave the Niners the ball with more time, which allowed them to mount a comeback.
Shanahan isn’t only one of the smartest coaches in the NFL because of his offensive scheme and brilliant play calling; he’s also smart in that he knows when to take chances and when to play conservatively.
The analytics crowd may not love his approach, but given how much success he’s had as head coach of the 49ers, it’s difficult to argue with him, and there’s a reason why he’s regarded as one of the best coaches in the NFL.
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