As the San Francisco 49ers gear up for the NFL Draft this month, team CEO Jed York dropped a little bit of wisdom at the annual NFL League Meeting in Arizona recently even if he did also stick his foot in his mouth a bit with regard to wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk.
According to David Lombardi of the San Francisco Standard on social media, York said the following about the draft and draft analysis: "You don’t know. It’s a crapshoot. So when people talk about draft grades, you have no freaking clue what your draft grade really is until two or three years later."
York... actually has a point on this one.
While the draft is an absolute bonanza both in the lead up and the aftermath, no one really knows how any of these guys are going to turn out. Remember when the 49ers got good draft grades for selecting quarterback Trey Lance? Remember how many shrugged when the team selected Brock Purdy with the last pick in the 2022 NFL Draft?
We just do not know how good these guys are going to be for quite some time. Some end up being contributors right away while others are late bloomers, so the draft is just the beginning, and the decisions made are based on a team's best guess at that point in time.
That does not necessarily make the lead-up to the draft pointless.
A lot of homework goes into these educated guesses teams make, because even if you miss most of the time, when you hit on a guy like George Kittle in Round 5 or Fred Warner in Round 3, it has the potential to completely change your franchise.
It may be tough for many fans to give York credit for being right, given how polarizing he has been at times throughout his tenure.
York was a lightning rod amongst the fanbase for years due to his mishandling of head coach Jim Harbaugh and other mistakes. He at least got things right by hiring general manager John Lynch and head coach Kyle Shanahan, which has ushered in an era of good 49ers football sans a Super Bowl title.
At least on this point with regard to the draft, he makes cogent sense. The draft still matters a ton, but anyone assuring you that one player is going to be a star while another is going to be a bust is selling you snake oil.