It'd be more than understandable for fantasy football owners to look closely at targeting San Francisco 49ers All-Pro running back Christian McCaffrey early once their 2026 fantasy drafts roll around.
After all, especially in points-per-reception leagues, the dual-threat rusher should have no problem accumulating points, particularly with how often head coach Kyle Shanahan likes to deploy McCaffrey on offense.
Bleacher Report's Alex Kay is advising owners to beware, though.
Unfortunately for CMC, he has a history of dealing with injuries after jaw-dropping seasons, and 2025 certainly classifies as one of the latter: 1,202 rush yards, 102 receptions for 924 receiving yards, 17 combined touchdowns and an NFL-high 413 touches.
It wasn't far removed from McCaffrey's Offensive Player of the Year campaign in 2023, in which he boasted 2,023 all-purpose yards.
Nor, was it wholly different from 2019 when he was with the Carolina Panthers and tallied an elusive 1,000/1,000-yard effort on the ground and through the air.
But, as Kay pointed out, the follow-up campaigns turned out to be more than just frustrating for fantasy owners.
Christian McCaffrey is poised to disappoint fantasy football owners in 2026
Now at age 30, McCaffrey has hit that invisible boundary in which most running backs decline sharply. There are the handful of exceptions, of course, but the combination of age and extreme wear and tear has to have fantasy owners worried.
Or at least they should be. Here's what Kay had to say:
Christian McCaffrey may have been last year's top-scoring fantasy player and a lock to come off the board in the early portion of Round 1 this season, but managers should be wary of selecting the San Francisco 49ers star near his current ADP of 6.0.
While that draft position would represent a massive bargain if he can replicate the incredible 416.6 points he posted in 2025, the four-time Pro Bowler has an unfortunate history of missing significant time following high-usage campaigns.
After leading the league in touches, yards from scrimmage and touchdowns during a monster 2019 season with the Carolina Panthers, McCaffrey was only able to participate in three contests the next year.
He wouldn't pace the NFL in those categories again until 2023, amassing a herculean 391.3 fantasy points during his first full season with the 49ers. Although he cemented himself as the consensus No. 1 fantasy draft pick in 2024, injuries led to him having a massively disappointing season in which he saw action in just four games.
McCaffrey recovered and returned to form last season, eclipsing 2,000 yards from scrimmage for the third time in an illustrious nine-year career. It took him a career-high 413 carries across all 17 games to get there, however, and that heavy lift could return to haunt the superstar back.
The awfully high ADP has to be concerning, and for owners who nevertheless target McCaffrey anyway, getting a good handcuff from the 49ers' depth options—Jordan James, Kaelon Black or Isaac Guerendo—becomes a necessity.
Should CMC buck the trend, though, there's little doubt Shanahan will put him on the field at lot, meaning those fantasy owners who took the risk should be rewarded.
Yet it's fair to ask whether or not that risk is worthwhile.
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