Despite a general resurgence in the value of the position, an undeniable fact remains. Running backs approaching or past age-30, with few exceptions, are nearing the end of their most useful shelf life. That reality is on the doorstep for the San Francisco 49ers, as Christian McCaffrey approaches his 29th birthday after only playing four games last season.
At the most recent league meetings, head coach Kyle Shanahan pointed to the practical certainty the 49ers will draft a running back this year.
"I think you always hope to address it every year," Shanahan said, via Grant Cohn of SI.com. "Of course, we're set with Christian McCaffrey, but every single year except two, we've gone through four running backs. Most teams do, so you always have to be prepared for that. But Christian is healthy. He's doing great. We have Isaac Guerendo in there working. Was pumped to get Patrick Taylor Jr. back. We'll see if we add one in the draft, but you'd like to add one every year."
In terms of a potential successor for McCaffrey the Ninerscould target in the draft, Arizona State running back Cam Skattebo has gotten a fair amount of attention.
But another running back prospect might be a better fit.
Day 2 running back prospect widely touted as perfect fit for the 49ers
The established core of the 49ers' offense is the run game, and zone-based run concepts (especially "wide zone") have been the core of the "Shanahan system" going back to Mike Shanahan, the 49ers' head coach's father. A successful back in that system doesn't have to be blazing fast, but he does have to have vision, patience and decisiveness as a runner.
Dalton Wasserman of Pro Football Focus recently built "teams" of 2025 draft prospects who fit certain NFL schemes, and for the "Shanahan scheme" on the offensive side he chose Iowa running back Kaleb Johnson:
"Balancing value with potential at running back was tough, given the potential late-round value of players like Bhayshul Tuten and Jaydon Blue. I opted for Kaleb Johnson, though, who may not have posted the blazing 40-yard dash time of those players but has the build of a workhorse and very good zone vision."
Tilting toward a fantasy angle, but it holds up to real-life fit, Jacob Gibbs of CBS Sports tabbed Johnson as a back in this year's draft class with "elite potential in a wide zone scheme." Going further on the same tangent, Brandon Howard of CBS Sports named the 49ers one of three ideal fantasy landing spots for Johnson:
"The San Francisco 49ers are another team that leans heavily on outside zone concepts, and while Johnson wouldn't be the fastest back in their stable, he could absolutely give them what they lost in Jordan Mason. With Christian McCaffrey and Isaac Guerendo offering speed, agility, and versatility, Johnson could be the physical presence who grinds out tough yards and keeps the offense on schedule."
"Kyle Shanahan's scheme relies heavily on wide zone runs and pre-snap motion, which often creates gaping lanes for decisive runners. Johnson's north-south running style and ability to handle contact make him an ideal complement to the finesse and burst brought by McCaffrey and Guerendo."
Johnson (6-foot-1, 224 pounds) had just one year as the No. 1 back for Iowa, but it was a good one as he led the Big Ten in rushing yards (1,537) and touchdowns on the ground (21). As expected, he ran a pretty slow 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine (4.57 seconds). There are questions about his utility as an every-down back at the next level, with consistent knocks on his ability to pass protect and a sheer lack of experience catching the ball. But there may be something to work with there (8.5 yards per catch with two receiving touchdowns last season).
As far as some comps for Johnson, Ryan Heckman of FanSided has James Conner, Lance Zierlein of NFL.com has Tyler Allgeier and Dame Parson of Bleacher Report offered DeMarco Murray.
A deep running back class could push the 49ers to wait on taking one until Day 3 of the draft, but there's a lot to like about Johnson in the second/third-round range. It's also fair to assume Kyle Shanahan sees how good the player-scheme fit looks, so it wouldn't be surprising if the Niners have Johnson higher on their draft board than a lot of teams do.