The Commanders' choice to offer Deebo Samuel a lot of money could come back to haunt them.
The San Francisco 49ers had little issue trading away wide receiver Deebo Samuel to the Washington Commanders.
If the Niners took issues in doing so, one would certainly question why they accepted only a fifth-round pick in return while absorbing a dead-cap hit of more than $31 million. Those are big-loser setbacks if San Francisco still saw the 29-year-old Samuel as an integral part of its offense.
Of course, the 49ers got out from under having to pay Samuel a dime more in actual cash, which has been a massive theme for the franchise all offseason.
That matters, and so does the desire to get younger.
Meanwhile, not only did general manager Adam Peters and the Commanders offer to take on the remainder of Samuel's salary, they doubled down on their financial commitment to him.
Commanders take massive risk on Deebo Samuel with guaranteed money
Nearly two weeks after news of the transaction broke, ESPN's Adam Schefter reported how Washington took $17 million of Samuel's potential earnings in 2025 and converted it into guaranteed money:
A reworked deal for Deebo in DC: the Commanders are guaranteeing $17 million of Deebo Samuel’s previously non-guaranteed salary for this season, along with adding another $3 million worth of incentives, per sources. Samuel now will play this season on a one-year deal worth up to… pic.twitter.com/H5pfBs5gUf
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) March 19, 2025
With an additional $3 million in incentives, Samuel could earn up to $20 million this season.
OK, why is that risky?
Samuel is likely riding on the coattails of his mesmerizing 2021 first-team All-Pro campaign, one in which a combination of receiving and rushing efforts resulted in 1,770 all-purpose yards and 14 combined touchdowns.
He hasn't been the same player since.
In 2022, following his first trade request and elongated contractual standoff, Samuel even admitted his efforts were "awful" and vowed to bounce back in 2023, which he did to a slight extent but nothing close to the numbers posted in 2021: a total of 1,117 net yards and 12 touchdowns.
Then, 2024 was nearly as disappointing as 2022.
To back up the claim, SF Standard's Tim Kawakami explained why the Niners were so willing to absorb the cap hit and trade Samuel for so little in return, to a top NFC contender, no less.
Should Samuel thrive in Washington, coupled with the Commanders potentially knocking San Francisco out of the playoffs, it'd be a massive stain on the 49ers.
"The 49ers clearly don’t think this will happen," wrote Kawakami. In translation, the Niners no longer feel Samuel is anything close to the kind of player he was not too long ago.
San Francisco wouldn't have given Samuel that much in guaranteed money. But the Commanders will, suggesting their belief is one that hinges on the one-time multifaceted offensive weapon returning to his old form.
That's a risky proposition, given the last three years. But, at least Washington is only committed for 2025.