This brutal 49ers draft truth about John Lynch is painfully hard to ignore

There were plenty of fan- and analyst-centered frustrations surrounding the San Francisco 49ers' 2026 NFL Draft class, most of which circled the notion general manager John Lynch and Co. were guilty of "reaching," grabbing players way earlier than the consensus board otherwise suggested.

It all kicked off with the top-of-the-second-round selection of wide receiver De'Zhaun Stribling, a player many felt could be had in Round 3.

Things didn't get much better from there.

Lynch defended his team's selections in a post-draft presser when asked about the reaches, and that's fine. Ultimately, drawing any conclusions about the Niners picks right now is folly. No one will know until they actually get out on the field.

That said, the latest crop of draftees doesn't help alleviate what's been an alarming trend of San Francisco overreach in the draft that has gone on for years.

And some recent analysis just shone the brightest of lights on the problem.

Draft 'reaches' have been a lingering problem for John Lynch's 49ers for a while

Much has been said (including on day three of this year's draft) about how well the 49ers have drafted, particulalry in the latter rounds. Tight end George Kittle, cornerback Deommodore Lenoir, linebacker Dre Greenlaw and quarterback Brock Purdy were all late-round picks.

The problem, though, is Purdy brought up the rear of that group, and he was selected back in 2022. It's been quite some time since the Niners have followed up that reputation.

Instead, Lynch and Co. have a massive trend of reaches, and Warren Sharp of Sharp Football Analysis made a case study of the general manager's latest draft classes, pointing out some serious issues:

Sharp already declared San Francisco's 2026 class as the weakest of all 32 teams, which probably prompted the greater research from the last four years, and his study didn't reveal a happy truth.

"For the last several years, I’ve looked at industry big boards and compared the “wisdom of crowds” ranking of draft prospects with what each team actually does.

The metric is called “Draft Capital Over Expectation” (DCOE) and helps to identify reaches or steals.

The 49ers' recent record is shocking:

2023: #31
2024: #28
2025: #31
2026: #32

So this isn’t just a 2026 thing.

This has been going on for several years.

The 49ers are the WORST in the NFL at drafting, and local reporters have noticed."

Diving deeper, Sharp's analysis doesn't paint anything brighter. Combing through the slew of draft selections, most of which are reaches, it'll be painful for 49ers fans to recall just how badly some of the whiffs have been.

And when nearly every one of them was considered a reach, it makes things even worse:

The largest reaches by Lynch, in order of actual draft capital his pick was “off” compared to consensus, since 2023:

Round 2 WR De'Zhaun Stribling (2026) – expected at 99, taken at 33
Round 3 PK Jake Moody (2023) – expected at 275, taken at 99
Round 3 LB Nick Martin (2025) – expected at 192, taken at 75
Round 3 RB Kaelon Black (2026) – expected at 214, taken at 90
Round 4 WR Jordan Watkins (2025) – expected at 304, taken at 138
Round 3 TE Cameron Latu (2023) – expected at 188, taken at 101
Round 4 OG Carver Willis (2026) – expected at 232, taken at 127
Round 5 LB Jaden Dugger (2026) – expected at 284, taken at 154
Round 3 CB Upton Stout (2025) – expected at 173, taken at 100
Round 2 CB Renardo Green (2024) – expected at 110, taken at 64
Round 6 OT Enrique Cruz Jr. (2026) – expected at 280, taken at 179
Round 5 S Marques Sigle (2025) – expected at 234, taken at 160
Round 2 DL Alfred Collins (2025) – expected at 61, taken at 43
Round 5 EDGE Robert Beal Jr. (2023) – expected at 228, taken at 173
Round 6 OG Jarrett Kingston (2024) – expected at 297, taken at 215
Round 4 RB Isaac Guerendo (2024) – expected at 164, taken at 129
Round 5 CB Darrell Luter Jr. (2023) – expected at 183, taken at 155
Round 7 TE Brayden Willis (2023) – expected at 276, taken at 247
Round 3 ED Romello Height (2026) – expected at 78, taken at 70
Round 5 CB Ephesians Prysock (2026) – expected at 141, taken at 139
Round 4 WR Jacob Cowing (2024) – expected at 137, taken at 135
Round 7 QB Kurtis Rourke (2025) – expected at 230, taken at 227

The 49ers have been clearly the worst in the NFL per DCOE over this time period.

Now, to blame this solely on Lynch as Sharp does isn't totally fair. The analyst may or may not know it, but head coach Kyle Shanahan has a lot of sway in personnel decisions, and one can't be fully sure just how much the head coach influenced the final picks aside from concluding, "a lot."

But that doesn't change the overall fact the Niners have become notorious reachers in the draft, and it's not just a one- or two-time thing.

It's been going on for years now, and 2026 just reinforced it.

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