The San Francisco 49ers will have their toughest test of the season on Sunday against the Denver Broncos. While starting the season 3-0 is a positive, two of those wins came against teams that probably won’t be very good this season and one of them came against a Los Angeles Rams team that did not look like itself down in Australia.
Denver comes in after beating the Rams last Sunday, but it does have an obvious weakness on defense when it comes to stopping the run. As David Lombardi of the San Francisco Standard noted on social media, Denver ranks last in the NFL when it comes to stopping the run this season.
He notes that it could just be a small sample size, which could be true, especially since the Broncos were a top-10 defense when it came to stopping the run last season. But no matter what, this is a great opportunity for San Francisco’s running back room.
Obviously, Christian McCaffrey should be licking his chops going into the contest, but Kaelon Black could be the halfback to fully take advantage of this potential Broncos weakness.
Kaelon Black should capitalize on Broncos' porous run defense
While McCaffrey is the most talented player on offense for San Francisco, given what he can do both as a rusher and a receiver, the Niners are clearly trying to limit his touches this season. He had 10 rushes in his first two weeks of the season and had 15 in Week 3. He had five receptions in Week 1, five in Week 2, and four in Week 3, so it seems San Francisco is targeting roughly 15 to 20 touches for him per week.
That’s a smart strategy because the 49ers will need McCaffrey to be fresh later in the season, so they cannot just run him into the ground early on.
That’s why Black is such an important piece to have.
Black has 25 rushes on the season so far, but his touches have dwindled in each game. He had 17 rushes and looked solid in Week 1, seven in Week 2, and four in Week 3. But Week 4 could truly be his chance to shine if San Francisco decides to run the ball a lot.
The Niners likely aren’t going to give McCaffrey 30 rushes because they know that sort of wear and tear would be bad for his body, so expect him to max out at about 20 rushes. Black should probably get at least five to 10 attempts with the ball in his hands, and if he can break off some big runs, he could have a breakout performance.
He’s shown off his burst a little bit, even though he hasn’t exactly broken a run off yet. But Sunday will be his chance to show he can be a potent threat in San Francisco’s offense and not just a guy who comes in to give McCaffrey a rest every now and then.
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