The path for the San Francisco 49ers securing the No. 1 seed in the NFC playoff picture is a simple one: win both remaining games on the regular-season schedule.
A crucial first step of that process is to handle business in Week 17's matchup against the 11-4 Chicago Bears at Levi's Stadium on Sunday Night Football, which would maintain the Niners' current hold on the top Wild Card spot (the No. 5 seed overall) while also setting up for a likely division- and conference-clinching bout against the top-seeded Seattle Seahawks to close out the regular season.
Yet that regular-season finale might not matter anywhere as much if San Francisco fails to win on Sunday night against Chicago.
And the 49ers' once-beautiful hopes for the top seed, and all its associated benefits, would almost completely evaporate.
Losing to Bears would be devastating to 49ers' hopes for No. 1 seed
For reference, here's the current NFC postseason picture with the Niners in the fifth spot:
- Seattle Seahawks (12-3*, 1st NFC West)
- Chicago Bears (11-4*, 1st NFC North)
- Philadelphia Eagles (10-5**, 1st NFC East)
- Carolina Panthers (8-7, 1st NFC South)
- San Francisco 49ers (11-4*, 2nd NFC West)
- Los Angeles Rams (11-4*, 3rd NFC West)
- Green Bay Packers (9-5-1, 2nd NFC North)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-8, 2nd NFC South)
San Francisco already has a postseason berth clinched, so that's not a concern.
Currently, according to ESPN's postseason odds and projections, the 49ers boast a 32-percent chance of securing the No. 1 seed, which could be done by beating both the Bears and Hawks in the upcoming two weeks.
If the Niners get the win over Chicago, their odds of getting the top seed in the postseason jump to 53 percent -- essentially declaring Week 18's tilt against Seattle as a pick 'em.
However, should San Francisco lose to the Bears, its chances of landing the No. 1 seed would fall way down to a mere one percent.
Effectively hopeless.
Moral of the story? The 49ers need to win on Sunday night when they kick off against the Bears at 8:20 p.m. ET.