Quarterback Brock Purdy and the rest of the San Francisco 49ers offense will have no trouble padding their stats when the Niners travel to take on the 4-5 Dallas Cowboys in Week 10.
Dallas is fielding a truly putrid defense this season under coordinator Christian Parker, one that ranks 25th in scoring and boasts a third-worst ranking in yards allowed. Only once this year, against the lowly Indianapolis Colts in Week 9, have the Cowboys held an opponent to less than 300 total yards.
Simply put, Purdy and Co. shouldn't have too much to worry about when it comes to moving the ball and scoring at AT&T Stadium despite San Francisco's laundry list of injuries.
But, if this is shaping up to be an easy victory for the 49ers, owners of the NFL's third-best scoring offense, think again.
Cowboys defense is terrible, but 49ers still face serious challenges
In many ways, Dallas is reminiscent of many of those old Indy teams with quarterback Peyton Manning under center: high-profile offenses that seemingly scored at will but had almost zero support on the defensive side of the ball. Or, possibly, not unlike how quarterback Patrick Mahomes' early tenure with the Kansas City Chiefs was marked by impressive offensive output with no defense to match.
The Cowboys, despite their defensive shortcomings, still own the league's sixth-best scoring offense. Indeed, quarterback Dak Prescott and wide receiver CeeDee Lamb pose problems for the Niners, who have shown some vulnerability on the back end of coordinator Raheem Morris' defense in recent weeks.
Considering Prescott has targeted Lamb an NFL-leading 108 times, it's safe to say those two will be a vital X-factor for San Francisco to curb.
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Even if Lamb and Prescott proverbially "get theirs," the 49ers still have some sizable advantages when the script is flipped.
49ers win if they maintain track record in 2 areas
Niners offense, good. Cowboys defense, bad. It almost is that simple.
Let's dive deeper, though, focusing on two specific areas where San Francisco has thrived and Dallas has collapsed on the offensive and defensive sides, respectively: third down and in the red zone.
3rd-down conversions
- 49ers offense: 51.7 percent (2nd best in NFL)
- Cowboys defense: 48.3 percent (worst in NFL)
Red-zone TD conversions
- 49ers offense: 84.6 percent (best in NFL)
- Cowboys defense: 67.7 percent (8th worst in NFL)
While slightly cliche, there's an argument to be made that games are won or lost by these two specific measureables: third downs and in the red zone. The 49ers have been dominant in both, particularly in the red zone where they're nearly 12 percentage points higher than the No. 2-ranked team, the Philadelphia Eagles (72.3 percent).
Tack on the Niners' ability to keep drives going via third-down conversions, and it's not hard to conclude that Purdy and Co. will sustain plenty of drives that result in finding the end zone.
With regularity, too.
Now, San Francisco's challenge will ultimately be ensuring Dallas' own potent offense falls a bit short, meaning Morris' side of the ball will be responsible for getting at least a handful of stops over the course of the contest.
If that happens, and despite what looks to be a shootout-kind of game, the 49ers will have no problem tacking on their eighth victory of the season on Sunday.
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