The San Francisco 49ers are rolling early. They enter Week 2 as overwhelming favorites after dismantling the Los Angeles Rams in Australia. With a Week 1 win and Seahawks QB Sam Darnold out at least a couple of weeks, the Niners look to be in the NFC West driver's seat to start the season.
That leaves the Arizona Cardinals. While they also won their matchup in Week 1, they entered the season with the lowest projected win total in the league, positioning them as one of the favorites to land one of the top picks in next year's NFL Draft. If that ends up being the case, the Cardinals could very well select Texas quarterback Arch Manning.
Most early mock drafts have Manning going either first or second, with QBs Dante Moore and CJ Carr filling out the rest of the top three. 49ers fans might be apprehensive about another high-pedigree quarterback entering the divisional picture. But given the current makeup of the division, it might actually be the best-case scenario.
Using a first-overall pick on a quarterback is almost never immediately beneficial
Selecting a quarterback with the first overall pick has become a bit of a staple of the NFL Draft. Over the past decade, a QB wasn't taken first only twice. One of those was Myles Garrett in 2017, and that selection paid off immediately. Though he only played in 11 games as a rookie, he managed to record 7 sacks. The next year, he recorded 13.5.
In short, Garrett made an immediate impact. Quarterbacks, on the other hand, rarely live up to their draft capital right away. Of the eight quarterbacks drafted first overall since 2016, only Baker Mayfield recorded more than 20 touchdowns, and he added 14 interceptions in the process.
Of those eight quarterbacks, only one helped their team win more than five games in their rookie season. Therefore, if the Cardinals win the Arch Manning sweepstakes, it would mean committing to rebuilding years down the road, all but ensuring short-term failure.
Cardinals could aid 49ers quest for Super Bowl in their championship window
If the Cardinals were to draft Manning, the 49ers would be one of the biggest beneficiaries in the year or two that followed. There is no denying he would have to endure growing pains, and the Niners would get to feast on the rookie signal caller twice a year.
Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle, Mike Evans, and Deebo Samuel are all at least 30 years old. Trent Williams is close to retirement. The 49ers' current championship window will not last forever. Even though QB Brock Purdy is getting better by the day, he is bound to lose his weapons at some point, and the 49ers will have no choice but to re-tool.
In the meantime, he and his squad will take any free wins they can get. Purdy will surely take on a rookie quarterback in his division, at least for a few years while he still has a championship-caliber roster around him. While the selection could pay off for Arizona in the long run, it will almost surely cement them as basement dwellers for the time being.
Los Angeles Rams' Matthew Stafford is also 38 years old, and there is no telling when he will either retire or decline. If the 49ers play their cards right, they could have a monopoly over the NFC West for the immediate future.
While Arch Manning's name will certainly turn heads, the formidable NFC West would greet him with open arms, forcing him to learn in a trial by fire. If the Cardinals commit to a multi-year rebuild and the Rams are forced to turn the page on their beloved quarterback, the 49ers could be eying a straight shot to the postseason over the next few years.
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