Why the 49ers eclipse last year's elite passing totals (and why they don't)

The NFC West's bottom team had one of the best passing offenses last year. Can the 49ers do better this season?
Kansas City Chiefs v San Francisco 49ers
Kansas City Chiefs v San Francisco 49ers | Aaron M. Sprecher/GettyImages

With a return to the Super Bowl in mind, the 2024 San Francisco 49ers were poised to make another deep playoff run until a series of misfortunes and too many losses ruined their season.

San Francisco recorded the fourth-most offensive yards last season, however. That was mainly as a result of the passing offense, which also produced the fourth-most passing yards a year ago.

Quarterback Brock Purdy got his big new contract this offseason. Tight end George Kittle also received a new deal, while wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk should return mid-season from his ACL injury suffered halfway through last year.

Just like Kittle, another one of Purdy's favorite targets from 2024 is (hopefully) coming back this year, although his latest extension and/or trade demands cast a shadow. Wide receiver Jauan Jennings had a career year that helped the Niners achieve one of the more proficient passing offenses.

Can the 49ers replicate 2024's passing successes?

Jennings and Aiyuk are wild cards, particularly in terms of their availability (and when that happens).

Their respective presence (or absence) will have direct ramifications on second-year players Ricky Pearsall and Jacob Cowing.

Pearsall only took the field in 11 games for San Francisco but still managed to haul in 31 receptions and 400 yards, in addition to three touchdowns. Look for the Florida Gator to avoid a sophomore slump and have a breakout season like Jennings did last year.

Head coach Kyle Shanahan potentially benefits from having Demarcus Robinson on his depth chart. Also a former Florida Gator, Robinson is no longer with the 49ers' in-state rival, the Los Angeles Rams, where he tallied seven touchdown passes last year. Yet Robinson's immediate fate is, too, up in the air as he awaits a potential suspension resulting from a DUI last year.

One of the things that helps a passing offense thrive, though, is having a solid run game. With the 2023 Offensive Player of the Year in Christian McCaffrey returning full strength, that should complement the 49ers' efforts for a legitimate passing attack. Young backups in Isaac Guerendo and Jordan James also should help.

The Niners also have the easiest strength of schedule, based on their opponents' combined 2024 winning percentage (.415), which bodes well for not only the final regular-season record but also hefty offensive production.

Schedule-wise, San Francisco is facing nine of the bottom 10 defenses from last year in terms of total offensive yards allowed. They have five games against teams that ranked in the bottom 10 for passing yards allowed, too.

It's hard to duplicate a strong passing offense in the NFL year after year

Since 2020, there have been quite some changes as to which teams finish in the top five in passing yards. The 49ers recently experienced back-to-back seasons being the fourth-best passing offense in terms of yards recorded.

In the past five seasons, only the Kansas City Chiefs and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have enjoyed being in the top five passing yards for three seasons in a row. In fact, Tampa Bay has done it four out of the last five. However, those two teams have featured quarterback greats like Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes during some of those instances.

If Purdy and the Niners look to join that elite company, they will have to average close to 265 to 275 passing yards per game to keep up with the top five since 2020.

Can they 49ers do it? Sure. Will they do it? That remains to be seen.

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