At 5-5, the 49ers' goal of making the NFL playoffs seems distant, but there's a clear-cut path to land a postseason berth.
The San Francisco 49ers have been here before.
In 2021, the Niners were 5-5 after 11 weeks and still managed to get into the NFL playoffs, clinching a Wild Card berth on the last week of the regular season. A year later, San Francisco was 4-4 at the halfway point of the year before going on a torrid tear down the stretch, not losing a game until it reached the NFC Championship.
So, despite the doom and gloom that's currently surrounding head coach Kyle Shanahan's squad after yet another 5-5 start to the year, there's yet reason for optimism heading into the latter half of the regular season.
However, it'll take a lot of work from the 49ers' perspective, and getting some help from friends across the league matters, too.
Currently, heading into Week 12, ESPN projects the Niners as having a 28-percent chance of making the postseason, while their odds to win the NFC West outright are a mere 20 percent.
Not ideal. And with back-to-back gauntlet-like road games against the Green Bay Packers and Buffalo Bills on the table over the next two weekends, it'll be exceptionally difficult for Shanahan and Co. to replicate the same kind of second-half success they had in 2021 and 2022.
But, there's still one relatively easy way for San Francisco to get into the postseason dance.
49ers' best path to postseason is to win NFC West
Check out the division's standings after 11 weeks:
- Arizona Cardinals (6-4)
- Los Angeles Rams (5-5)
- Seattle Seahawks (5-5)
- San Francisco 49ers (5-5)
The Niners' 1-3 record within the division is devastating, but they at least split the season series against the Hawks and have a chance to do the same in later games against LA and Arizona, including a regular-season Week 18 finale versus the Cardinals.
Still, the fact no one is running away with the NFC West just yet is a massive bonus, allowing San Francisco the chance to go on a second-half surge while hoping the remaining division rivals don't make much headway in non-division games.
Case in point, Seattle still has games against the Green Bay Packers and Minnesota Vikings, while the Cardinals still have four more division games and also have to face off against Minnesota.
Los Angeles, meanwhile, still has to contend with the Bills and Philadelphia Eagles while enduring three more NFC West bouts, too.
The 49ers hope their three division rivals hover around the .500 mark at best down the stretch, which would afford the Niners an opportunity to rise one or two games above the rest of the pack.
Will it involve some help from around the league, including some bottom-feeding teams like the Carolina Panthers and New York Jets, both of whom are tasked with facing NFC West teams in upcoming weeks?
Absolutely.
But, it would be a far different scenario if one or two other squads had a signficant lead in the division.
Thankfully, no one does.