When pondering an NFC West showdown between two hated rivals like the Seattle Seahawks and San Francisco 49ers, a special teams battle isn't exactly the No. 1 thing that'd come to mind.
But that may very well be the determining factor when these two squads face off in a critical Week 5 showdown at Lumen Field.
Hawks head coach Mike Macdonald absolutely shut down quarterback Brock Purdy and the Niners offense the last two times the teams met, including San Francisco's playoff exit in the divisional round last January. And, despite the 49ers' offseason additions, there's still a concern Macdonald and Co. will do much of the same to a banged-up Niners offense.
Unless special teams somehow tips the balance.
Looking at the data and metrics, it just might.
49ers may have to lean on special teams advantages vs. Seahawks
This isn't just cherry-picking stats to suggest San Francisco has a slight edge here in Week 5. It's a genuine concern for Seattle, as our friends over at 12th Man Rising recently pointed out after the Seahawks' Week 4 win over the hapless Los Angeles Chargers:
Something is very wrong with the Seahawks' special teams this season. We saw it again in Sunday's win over the Chargers. Unit coach Jay Harbaugh needs to get a handle on this, and he needs to do it quickly with the division-leading 49ers coming to town. ...
The punt coverage has been solid, but the Chargers did average 28.0 yards per kickoff return. Last year, the Seahawks allowed 23.96 yards per kick return. That was the third-best figure in the league. This season, they're giving up 30.1 yards per return. That's 30th in the NFL. Seattle isn't going to fire Harbaugh during the season, but this needs to turn around quickly.
Indeed, many of the numbers add up in the 49ers' favor. Whereas the Hawks are struggling at giving up lengthy kick returns, the Niners are squarely in the middle with an average of 25.5 return yards allowed.
Both San Francisco's Eddy Piñeiro and Seattle's Jason Myers have missed extra points already this year, while Seahawks return specialist Rashid Shaheed's 27.3 yards-per-return average isn't vastly advantageous over the Niners' Deebo Samuel posting a 25.7 average of his own.
Meanwhile, the metrics are provocative and show a distinct advantage for the red and gold.
According to Pro Football Focus, and despite some miscues, San Francisco's special teams has an overall grade of 74.1—14th best through four weeks. The Hawks, meanwhile, rank next to last with a 49.2 overall grade.
Now, this isn't to say both squads' special teams importance will ultimately decide the game.
But, if it winds up being a close affair, it wouldn't be shocking whatsoever if the overlooked third phase winds up being a crucial factor.
And it appears as if the 49ers have the slight edge there.
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