Aside from a few early bumps and bruises, San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey looks primed and ready to go. The superstar is on the wrong side of 30 but appears to be in immaculate shape.
Lately, though, many have wondered whether his heavy workload from last season will rear its ugly head. After a recent viral infographic that circulated social media, it's become nearly impossible to argue against an expected decline that looks all but inevitable.
The graphic features Christian McCaffrey along with every other running back that has led the league in touches since 2015. Needless to say, the Niners' star has an uphill battle heading into the new season.
Will the trend continue for CMC or will he pull a Zeke from 2018?
— Jesse Morse, M.D. (@DrJesseMorse) August 29, 2026
Christian McCaffrey had 450 touches in 2025, including the postseason.
For comparison he had 403 touches in 2019 playing only 16 games. He only played 3 games the following season.
I shared similar concerns… pic.twitter.com/7gtxNknvMM
Running back regression has been nearly unavoidable, and Christian McCaffrey may be next
The list is depicted through a fantasy football lens, but it carries many real-life implications. Over the past decade, nine backfield volume leaders have significantly regressed the following season, the lone exception being Ezekiel Elliot back in 2019.
McCaffrey himself appears twice on the list. Both of his previous peak seasons were followed up by failed encores.
Injuries are often a result of freak plays and unfortunate circumstances, so it would seem rash to project another shortened season for the superstar. Unfortunately, the last ten years of data look more like a trend than a coincidence.
CMC doesn't currently have an injury designation that might threaten his season, but that's exactly what fans thought back in 2024, when his Achilles tendonitis went from a minor inconvenience to an eight-game encumbrance.
49ers must make sure CMC insurancy policies are in place
Because of this unfortunate trend, the 49ers would be remiss not to protect against another McCaffrey injury. The last one virtually derailed their season, and another would do more of the same in 2026.
Backups Kaelon Black and Jordan James both looked sharp in the team's final preseason game, but neither of them has significant experience at the NFL level.
Given the fragillity of their backfield, the Niners might benefit from checking in on the availability of backups around the league, ideally those with more experience. To do otherwise would be to ignore the relevant history the aforementioned graphic clearly displayed.
While Black and James could very well be quality tailbacks, Kyle Shanahan needs a more reliable backup option to spell CMC. If injury does strike, the red and gold have no excuse not to be prepared. They've been burned by the same situation once before, and they can't claim ignorance this time around. It would be wise to protect themselves from the same horrible fate.
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