Trey Lance can’t afford to fail Kyle Shanahan, 49ers in 2023

2023 will be a crossroads for 49ers quarterback Trey Lance, as his NFL future may hinge upon whether or not he’s finally able to deliver as originally expected.

Aside from Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence, the entirety of the 2021 NFL Draft class at quarterback has been a massive disappointment.

The New York Jets probably can’t get rid of Zach Wilson fast enough, and there are even speculative reports about the Chicago Bears’ willingness to trade Justin Fields this offseason. Tack on more reports about the New England Patriots considering trade offers for Mac Jones, and yes, the 2021 class has been underwhelming and then some.

Included in that mix is the No. 3 overall pick, San Francisco 49ers quarterback Trey Lance.

Lance isn’t quite in the same boat as these other names, and that’s both a good and bad thing. Considering he has just four NFL-level starts after being No. 2 on the Niners’ depth chart his rookie year, then suffering a season-ending ankle injury early in 2022, Lance remains almost entirely an unknown commodity.

On one hand, he hasn’t flamed out already like Wilson, frustrated the coaching staff like Jones and isn’t part of a rebuild like Fields.

On the other, though, Lance hasn’t come anywhere close to turning into a centerpiece like Lawrence is.

Heading into 2023, Lance’s third year at the pro level, that’s a glaring concern and problem.

49ers need to start seeing a return on investment from Trey Lance in 2023

Partially, through no fault of his own, Lance simply hasn’t had the chance to prove himself worthy of that No. 3 overall pick, and the lucrative trade-up package San Francisco had to put together to get there.

Sitting behind Jimmy Garoppolo in 2021 was supposed to be a good thing for Lance’s development, but no one ever got the chance to see that pan out over a full season because of the 2022 ankle injury.

Head coach Kyle Shanahan isn’t going to be unlike other coaches with regard to patience and players. Given the 49ers are in win-now mode, he’ll go with whatever quarterback is playing the best. In 2021, that was Garoppolo. In 2022, Lance wasn’t available after Week 2, so it was again Garoppolo by default.

That is, at least until then-rookie Brock Purdy entered the fray after Garoppolo’s Week 13 season-ending injury.

Now, two full years into his pro tenure, Lance has a whopping four starts under his belt. Tack on the fact he played a mere one game in 2020 at his collegiate alma mater, North Dakota State, and the lack of field time is a glaring problem.

As far as investments go, the Niners haven’t gotten it. Throw Purdy into the mix, and Lance may still struggle to deliver that ROI.

Trey Lance needs to beat, not just meet 49ers’ expectations

Purdy does muddy the waters for Lance’s future, and there are already reports that it’s the former’s job to lose, as far as starting goes.

However, with Purdy sidelined for at least six months after suffering an elbow injury in the NFC Championship loss to the Philadelphia Eagles, a soon-to-be fully healthy Lance has the opportunity to reclaim his starting job.

Related Story: Trey Lance is almost healthy, poised to start again for 49ers

Regardless, 2023 is still shaping up to be a make-or-break year for the quarterback, and Sports Illustrated’s Albert Breer said as much during a recent appearance on the Bay Area’s 95.7 The Game (h/t 49ers Webzone):

"This is a critical year for Trey because they’ve got to make a decision on a fifth-year option after this year. And what history tells us is if you get past that point, you get past year three, and the fifth-year option hasn’t been picked up, an extension hasn’t been done, generally, those guys are on their last legs with the teams that they’re with.So I think this is a critical year because of where he is in his contract. And I think this is a critical year in that if he doesn’t deliver, and if Brock doesn’t deliver, then they have to look at other options outside the organization because of how good their roster is."

Will Lance overcome his inexperience and play well enough to convince San Francisco that not only should it relegate Purdy to No. 2 on the depth chart but also either pick up Lance’s fifth-year option or engineer that coveted extension?

Based on what Lance has delivered over the last two years, and injuries are a part of that, it’s a hard sell.

Only Lance will be able to prove himself worthy enough to Shanahan and Co.