49ers playoff scenarios: San Francisco still alive for No. 1 seed in the NFC

The San Francisco 49ers are still alive for the No. 1 seed in the NFC Playoffs but they’ll need the Philadelphia Eagles to lose one more game.

The 49ers gave fans quite a scare on Sunday when they went to overtime against the Las Vegas Raiders. A loss would have extinguished San Franciso’s hopes of landing the top seed in the AFC but thanks to a Tashaun Gipson interception and a Robbie Gould field goal in the extra period, the Niners won their ninth game in a row.

How can the 49ers get the No.1 seed in the NFC Playoffs?

Before we get to the clinching scenarios, let’s relay some good news. With yesterday’s win and a Minnesota Vikings loss to the Green Bay Packers, the 49ers moved into the No. 2 seed in the NFC Playoffs. That means that even if San Francisco is unable to lock up the No. 1 seed in Week 18, as long as it wins vs. the Cardinals, the No. 2 seed will be clinched.

The bad news is that the NFL recently changed the rules so that only the No. 1 seed gets a bye week during the Wild Card round of the playoffs. As the No. 2 seed, the 49ers would need to win three playoff games to reach the Super Bowl.

The Niners have a very clear path to capturing the No. 1 seed. They just need two things to happen.

1. The 49ers need to beat the Arizona Cardinals in Week 18. San Francisco is currently a 14.5-point favorite in that game.

2. The Philadelphia Eagles need to lose to the New York Giants in Week 18. Even a tie vs. the Giants would secure the top seed for Philly. 

The first step should be fairly simple. While no win in the NFL is “easy,” the 49ers are clearly a better team than the Cardinals. Arizona is already eliminated from playoff contention and doesn’t have much to play for. If the 49ers execute, they should take care of business vs. the Cards. A loss or a tie with the Cardinals, however, would drop the 49ers to the No. 3 seed if the Vikings win their Week 18 matchup against the Chicago Bears. Should both the Niners and Vikings lose or tie, the seeding would remain the same and San Fran would be the No. 2 seed.

The second step is where things get complicated. The Eagles are currently 13.5-point favorites over the Giants. Philly has lost its last two games, due in part to QB Jalen Hurts being out with an injury. Backup QB Gardner Minshew has been filling in and the Eagles have lost both games he has started. Unfortunately for 49ers fans, Ian Rapoport of NFL Network is reporting that Hurts is expected to return to the starting lineup vs. the Giants.

Just because Hurts is likely to play doesn’t mean the Eagles are guaranteed a victory. The Giants just clinched their first playoff berth since 2016 so they are no pushovers. But New York is locked into the No. 6 seed, so a Week 18 win vs. the Eagles is good for nothing except bragging rights for Big Blue. It is possible New York may choose to rest some starters to avoid injuries in a meaningless game, allowing the Eagles to roll.

If the Eagles and 49ers were to both lose and the Dallas Cowboys beat the Washington Commanders in Week 18, Dallas would take over as the No. 1 seed, with the 49ers dropping to the No. 3 seed and the Eagles falling all the way to the No. 5 seed.

While all the scenarios can be a little confusing, the 49ers need to focus on beating the Cardinals in Week 18. If they do that, they will secure the No. 2 seed and then they can hope they get help from the Giants. If the 49ers do end up being the No. 2 seed, they will face either the Packers, Lions, or Seahawks, depending on how the Week 18 games shake out.