49ers playoff picture: Ranking potential Wild Card opponents

49ers Wild Card opponent No. 3: Detroit Lions

To be honest, it was a toss-up here between two teams, but the Lions end up in the No. 3 slot by virtue of just how bad their defense has been in 2022.

You might immediately counter with the very true fact the Lions have the best offense of the four teams the 49ers could face in the first round.

This is true and it’s supported by almost all of the numbers.

If you want raw numbers, the Lions are fifth in points (26.4 points per game) and fourth in yards (375 yards per game). If you prefer the DVOA metrics, Detroit boats the sixth-best offense (10.6 percent), including the league’s ninth-best passing attack (25.1 percent), although the rushing game is pretty mediocre (12th, minus-0.6 percent).

Their offense is led by former Rams’ signal-caller Jared Goff, who is having a solid season, throwing for over 3,600 yards with 23 touchdowns and just seven interceptions while completing 64.9 percent of his passes. The skill players are paced by second-year wideout Amon-Ra St. Brown, who has pulled in 89 of Goff’s passes on 119 targets for 974 yards and six touchdowns.

So that’s all good for the Lions, but if you take into account that they are a little one-dimensional on offense (their leading rusher, Jamaal Williams, is averaging just 3.9 yards per attempt) and that the Niners defense is pretty familiar with Goff, it isn’t a major concern.

The matchup on the other side of the ball is not one that appears to work out in the Lions’ favor at all. Their defense is just plain bad.

Detroit is 31st in terms of points and yards allowed, with the offense’s point total eclipsing what the defense has allowed by just five points. And while DVOA is kinder, Detroit is still in the bottom portion of the league in overall defense (22nd, 5.3 percent), against the pass (23rd, 11.2 percent), and against the rush (19th, minus-3.2 percent).

Certainly, the Lions defense has been better since they rattled off wins in six of their last seven games to improve from 1-6 to 7-7 and get themselves into the playoff hunt. But the Lions’ overall body of work suggests they can be beaten by San Francisco.