49ers vs. Buccaneers: Betting the under in Week 14 seems smart

Jacquizz Rodgers #32 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Photo by Michael Zagaris/San Francisco 49ers/Getty Images)
Jacquizz Rodgers #32 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Photo by Michael Zagaris/San Francisco 49ers/Getty Images) /

6-6. Fox. Sunday, Dec. 11. 48. 8-4. 42. 49ers -3.5. 4:25 p.m. ET

The 49ers and Buccaneers don’t figure to put up a ton of points in their Week 14 matchup, so betting the under in this game might look like the right play.

If you’re looking for a high-scoring affair in Week 14, you might want to explore other games than the San Francisco 49ers’ home matchup against quarterback Tom Brady and the visiting Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Not long ago, Brady and the Bucs would have prompted plenty of betting odds to go with the over in games, particularly if they were squaring off against either a paltry defense and/or matching up opposite an offense that could exchange blows in a similar fashion.

Well, that won’t be the case on Sunday against the Niners.

Tampa Bay’s offense ranks fifth lowest in the league in points scored (217), and it’s averaging a mere 18.1 points per game on the year. Regardless of Brady’s prowess, the simple fact is the Buccaneers don’t score a lot of points, and they haven’t scored more than 22 in a game since way back in Week 4 in a 41-31 shootout loss to the Kansas City Chiefs.

Compounding things, both San Francisco and Tampa Bay boast top-five defenses, the 49ers entering this Week 14 tilt with the No. 1 scoring defense, while the Buccaneers aren’t far behind at No. 5.

And while the Niners have an array of offensive playmakers, such as All-Pros Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel, the absence of an injured quarterback in Jimmy Garoppolo means that the final pick of the 2022 NFL Draft, Brock Purdy, will be making his first-ever NFL start.

Against Brady no less.

If you’re expecting the points to fly, this might not be the game in which it happens.

49ers vs. Buccaneers: Betting the under seems smart

According to the oddsmakers over at WynnBET, who also list San Francisco as a 3.5-point home favorite, the over/under for this game is already considerably low at 38.0.

Anything dipping below 40 is already going to be viewed as a low-scoring affair, but the 49ers and Bucs might actually take this to a new level.

Over their five-game win streak, the Niners have held opponents to an average of just 11.4 points per game, including one shutout against the New Orleans Saints in Week 12. Each of the teams San Francisco has faced during that stretch boasts a better scoring offense entering Week 14 than Tampa Bay, meaning it wouldn’t be shocking to see Brady and the Buccaneers struggle to get anywhere close to their average of 18-plus points per game.

Read More: 49ers vs. Buccaneers: Week 14 betting odds, game prediction

Although, with Purdy at the helm of a 49ers offense and matched up against a good Bucs defense, don’t look for the Niners to have a ton of fireworks either.

Instead, Sunday’s contest might end up being one of those 17-10 finishes, meaning betting the under seems smart.

San Francisco and Tampa Bay kick off on Sunday, Dec. 11 at 4:25 p.m. ET.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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