49ers fantasy football: Trey Lance 2022 draft value should skyrocket

Fantasy football players looking for a sleeper quarterback in 2022 might be enticed by Trey Lance, who was all but guaranteed the 49ers’ starting job.

Unless you’re grabbing an elite-tier quarterback in your fantasy football draft heading into 2022 — the likes of Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes or Aaron Rodgers — the smarter play is often to wait until the middle rounds of your league draft to figure out who’ll be your QB1, especially in shallower leagues.

Of course, if you’re a fan of the San Francisco 49ers, you were probably waiting to see what the news would be surrounding which quarterback would be deemed the starter heading into the upcoming season.

Would it be the incumbent, Jimmy Garoppolo? Or would head coach Kyle Shanahan follow the plan that appeared to be laid out the last offseason, going with 2021 rookie Trey Lance after the Niners used the No. 3 overall draft pick on him?

The 2022 offseason has already been filled with speculation about the two, Garoppolo remaining on the roster despite chatter San Francisco was aiming to trade him, which understandably led to doubts about whether or not Lance would actually be granted the starting role.

On Tuesday, amid the 49ers’ opening day of training camp, Shanahan put those questions to rest by confirming Lance was “the guy” moving forward:

"I think Jimmy and we knew what move we made the year before on that. Jimmy did a hell of a job coming to camp and winning that job and taking us real close to the Super Bowl.But we have moved on to Trey."

There shouldn’t be any more doubts now. Lance will be the Niners’ QB1 heading into the upcoming season, and Shanahan’s additional comments seem to indicate Garoppolo will be moved by the regular season.

So, what does this mean for those coveting Lance in fantasy football?

Trey Lance fantasy football value should increase with 49ers’ latest news

Perhaps those closer to San Francisco’s quarterbacking situation saw this coming all along. But the national narrative still had doubts about Lance actually retaining the starting job, let alone keeping it all year long.

Uncertain quarterback battles are terrible for fantasy stock values but potentially great for sleeper picks, as no one would want to waste a pick on a quarterback who isn’t poised to start.

Currently, according to Fantasy Football Calculator, Lance’s average draft position (ADP) in a 12-team format is 9.10 (Round 9, pick No. 10).

Lance is the 14th quarterback listed, and there will be plenty of other options. And while Garoppolo actually didn’t qualify for Fantasy Football Calculator’s list of quarterback ADPs entering 2022, likely due to his own uncertainty ahead of the upcoming season, Lance’s fantasy football value remains low.

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Perhaps in perfect striking range for that late-round flier.

Granted, there are a lot of gambles when it comes to selecting Lance as the guy, even in deeper leagues. He hasn’t played a full season as a starter since his 2019 collegiate year at North Dakota State, and a first-time NFL starter always carries plenty of concerns. But the 49ers have a roster chock full of talent to assist Lance on offense, and his own unique rushing prowess might open up the door for dual-threat fantasy numbers if he delivers on his skill set.

Either way, with Lance all but officially named the Niners’ starter heading into 2022, it’s likely that ADP value will start to creep up towards Week 1.

If it doesn’t, don’t hesitate to take the flier.