Reassessing Jimmy Garoppolo trade value post Baker Mayfield move

The trade market for Jimmy Garoppolo just thinned further with Baker Mayfield on the move to the Panthers, meaning it’s worth reexamining the 49ers QB’s value.

If you were thinking the Carolina Panthers could swoop in at the 11th hour and strike a trade deal for San Francisco 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, you likely found yourself disappointed earlier this week.

This, in light of Carolina engineering a move with the Cleveland Browns for quarterback Baker Mayfield.

On a positive note, this might help settle the offseason quarterback market with Mayfield no longer in play for one of the few teams in need of a signal-caller. On the other, the Niners’ inability to move their quarterback and open up the door for second-year pro Trey Lance to take over hasn’t gained any momentum either.

Why?

That’s where Garoppolo’s market value comes into play.

It’s entirely possible San Francisco wholly overvalued Garoppolo’s value on the trade market this offseason. A 30-year-old oft-injured quarterback coming off shoulder surgery and who was only marginally effective in head coach Kyle Shanahan’s offense-friendly system won’t overly command a lot of interest.

This argument alone suggests a trade market for Jimmy G is all but nonexistent, and it could theoretically stay that way.

Why Jimmy Garoppolo has weaker trade value than Baker Mayfield

Two lame-duck quarterbacks. Two signal-callers who underwent shoulder surgery during the offseason. One was moved, the other wasn’t.

Granted, Mayfield’s surgery didn’t involve his throwing arm, but it’s still not something to overlook. Despite the 49ers repeatedly hinting that Garoppolo’s own surgery got in the way of trade talks, it’s hard to ignore the pursuit of Mayfield gained far more headlines than whatever was developing for Jimmy G.

Granted, Niner Noise recently ran a hypothetical post-Mayfield trade piece speculating teams that could still be in on acquiring Garoppolo. But the cold hard reality is any of those scenarios is highly unlikely.

Putting it bluntly, Garoppolo commands less interest than Mayfield, and any would-be interested team knows the Niners are looking to move on but have almost no reasonable option to spike the market.

Why trade for the quarterback amid that context?

What is Jimmy Garoppolo’s trade value for 49ers now?

Money is also a large part of the equation in light of the other factors. Cleveland wanted to clear as much of the near $19 million Mayfield was scheduled to earn in 2022, per Over the Cap.

Yet part of the trade package with Carolina involved a conditional fifth-round NFL Draft pick, as well as both the Browns and Panthers eating the costs. Mayfield, too, agreed to a trimmed base salary, as NFL Network’s Mike Garafolo reported:

In light of Mayfield commanding more trade attention than Garoppolo this offseason, Cleveland still has to absorb $10.5 million while getting only a conditional Round 5 pick in return.

If you’re thinking Garoppolo nets anything higher, it’s not likely.

Garoppolo is scheduled to command $26.95 million this season. If traded, his new team would assume $25.55 million in salary with San Francisco still on the hook for $1.4 million in dead money. That is, of course, assuming Garoppolo’s new team would keep him at that value. More likely than not, they’d ask him to take a hefty pay decrease, and Garoppolo’s camp could easily be hesitant to accept.

Judging by how the Mayfield trade went down, imaging the 49ers being able to pull off something similar with another team seems highly unlikely.

True, the Niners can still wait it out between now and Week 1, before Lance is officially named 2022’s starter. Should a team lose its starter to a serious injury during training camp or the preseason, San Francisco would have Garoppolo polished up and ready to go via trade.

However, if that doesn’t pan out, the reality is Garoppolo commands next to nothing in terms of trade value at the current moment, a far cry from what the 49ers originally thought they could get out of him.