ESPN predicts 49ers to win how many games in 2022?

The 49ers have a playoff-caliber roster entering 2022 but also face an awfully tough schedule. So, how many games should they win this season? ESPN has its answer.

If there’s one thing clear about the San Francisco 49ers entering 2022, it’s the reality things will look awfully different for head coach Kyle Shanahan’s squad compared to last year.

Particularly on offense and at quarterback, where second-year man Trey Lance is going to take over for the veteran, Jimmy Garoppolo, under center.

Lance will be well-supported with offensive playmakers like tight end George Kittle, wide receiver Deebo Samuel and a still run-first offense under Shanahan. And if the Niners defense can play the kind of complementary football it enjoyed in 2021, there should be no reason to automatically block San Francisco from getting right back to where its season concluded previously, the NFC Championship game.

Hopefully further.

This means the 49ers have to win some games, though, and Lance is a notable X-factor.

But does he work the Niners in a positive or negative way when it comes to predicting win totals for the upcoming season?

ESPN predicts 49ers finish 2022 with same record as last year

Again, everyone out there making predictions (including us) acknowledges how much can change between now and when San Francisco actually plays these games.

However, it’s probably a safe bet to assume the 49ers don’t fall to the rebuilding Seahawks twice again this season despite this being an unfortunate trend over the previous 10 years.

At any rate, the folks over at ESPN are predicting an identical finish for the Niners in 2022 compared to the actual 10-7 finish last season.

Well, at least setting the over/under on wins at 10:

"Over/under number: 10Prediction: That’s the number of games the Niners won last season before making a deep postseason run and feels about right for a roster that remains mostly intact. But there’s a lot more possible variance with this group because of the expected ascendance of Trey Lance to the starting quarterback job. — Nick Wagoner"

Too much? Too few? Or is that number just about right?

10 wins are reasonable for 49ers in 2022

As fun and easy as it would be to predict San Francisco winning 12, 13 or even 14 games this season, it’d be smarter to be realistic.

Lance is an unknown, not only for having started only two games last season but also because he hasn’t played a full season since 2019 at North Dakota State. Yes, the positive signs are all there, but it’s just as plausible to see some awfully bad games from Lance, too.

On top of that, the 49ers are tied for the fifth-toughest strength of schedule in 2022, too. And while that’s based on last year’s win-loss totals, it still suggests the Niners aren’t going to have a smooth-sailing NFL schedule.

Perhaps San Francisco won’t have the early season meltdown it had a year ago, and it might not have the same sort of desperation-mode stretch to close out the regular season either.

Yeah, 10 wins can be realistic. And it’s not wrong to hope for more.