Trey Lance showed signs of being great his rookie season but still has a lot to prove. Not unlike the remainder of second-year quarterbacks with a lot to show.
Quarterbacks selected in Round 1 of any NFL Draft always have a lot of pressure put upon their shoulders.
Any casual San Francisco 49ers fan can attest to this, as looking at any elongated discussion about Trey Lance, the No. 3 overall selection from the 2021 draft, prompts all sorts of question marks about whether or not the Niners made the right move aggressively trading up for the rights to draft him.
It’s OK to be a gunshy rookie, either sitting on the bench behind a veteran as Lance did for the bulk of his rookie year while quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo started all but two games. It’s also OK for a rookie to struggle after being thrust into a situation on a bad team, such as the New York Jets experienced with the No. 2 overall pick, Zach Wilson.
However, any quarterback is expected to make a massive leap in year two of his pro career.
So, that prompts the question: Will Lance make the greatest of leaps of all those now poised-to-start second-year quarterbacks?
Trey Lance and the other 2021 rookie now-starting quarterbacks
Five quarterbacks were selected in Round 1 of the 2021 NFL Draft, although there are currently six second-year signal-callers poised to start in 2022.
To recap:
- Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars (No. 1 overall)
- Zach Wilson, New York Jets (No. 2 overall)
- Trey Lance, San Francisco 49ers (No. 3 overall)
- Justin Fields, Chicago Bears (No. 11 overall)
- Mac Jones, New England Patriots (No. 15 overall)
- Davis Mills, Houston Texans (No. 67 overall)
Lawrence and Fields were effectively shoved into starting roles right away, while Jones solidified the job in training camp, pushing out veteran quarterback Cam Newton in the process.
Both Fields and Mills had to beat out journeymen veterans, the former knocking off Andy Dalton, while the latter unseated Tyrod Taylor.
Lance, meanwhile, got into two starts as a rookie, going 1-1 in those games and showing substantial improvements between the two starts, although it’s important to note how small of a sample size it is.
Before we look at the individual traits of each quarterback, let’s explore the contexts surrounding each of them.
Context for Trey Lance, other 2nd-year QBs in 2022
Sure, at some point, we’re going to have to admit one or more of the 2021 rookie quarterbacks now starting are better than the others. Both in terms of physical abilities and development at the pro level.
However, in the “nurture versus nature” argument of adopting collegiate quarterbacks to the NFL ranks, there’s no such thing as equal.
Merely saying the Jaguars or Jets will make non-fans of those two teams chuckle a bit, as both the Jags and Gang Green have been mired in years of mediocrity. Heck, not even mediocrity. Laughingstock-crity sounds better.
Trevor Lawrence and Zach Wilson face two different paths
Lawrence was the sure-thing pick in 2021, except his rookie season was a complete loss under the disaster that was former head coach Urban Meyer.
As most San Francisco fans can attest (they remember quarterback Alex Smith’s first few years), changing offensive systems frequently early on isn’t a good plan for success, and those fans will scoff at anything Jacksonville general manager Trent Baalke does.
The Jags overspent on wide receiver Christian Kirk and Zay Jones while adding tight end Evan Engram and then using three of their first four NFL Draft picks on defensive talent.
Wilson, meanwhile, should be thankful the Jets added a stud at wide receiver in Garrett Wilson, then grabbed two offensive standouts at their respective positions on day two, running back Breece Hall and tight end Jeremy Ruckert.
Of the first two quarterbacks taken in 2021, Wilson has to be the one feeling happiest about his team’s direction.
Mac Jones is fine, and that’s all he’ll ever be
Not totally surprisingly, Mac Jones ended up being the most productive and efficient of all the quarterbacks taken in Round 1. He finished with a 67.6 completion percentage, passing for 3,801 yards with 22 touchdowns against 13 interceptions.
The New England Patriots beefed up his receiving arsenal, adding former Miami Dolphins wideout DeVante Parker before grabbing fellow wideout Tyquan Thornton in Round 2 of the draft.
Jones easily had the highest floor but the lowest ceiling of all the first-round quarterbacks last year, and he’s already close to reaching where he’ll be at the top.
Nothing wrong with that, but it’s nothing that suggests a massive leap in year two either.
Justin Fields, Davis Mills in the doldrums?
Like the Jaguars, the Bears didn’t exactly do Justin Fields any favors by changing up the coaching staff (although getting rid of head coach Matt Nagy was a must-do item).
That could hurt his development. But passing on the need to reinforce the receiving corps around Fields after bidding farewell to wide receiver Allen Robinson is a shaky decision.
As for Davis Mills? Well, former Alabama wide receiver John Metchie is a nice addition from Round 2, and the speedy Brandin Cooks is still the No. 1 threat. But Mills, who looks to be given a full shot at earning the long-term starting role in 2022 and beyond, still projects to be victimized by a slow, seemingly directionless Texans squad that’s going nowhere fast.
Both Houston and Chicago have a lot of problems to sort out, and those will hinder both second-year signal-callers a lot.
Trey Lance and the 49ers
So, where does Trey Lance fit into this equation?
Of the six quarterbacks mentioned, Lance is the only one with the two lone starts. And that was the 49ers’ plan all along, letting him sit on the bench for a year with the hopes of turning his exciting-but-raw skill set into a bona fide force.
Whether or not that plan actually works is anyone’s guess at this point, but one could make the argument the Niners have the best supporting cast out there for a young quarterback.
Despite his wishes, San Francisco didn’t let All-Pro wide receiver Deebo Samuel go via trade this offseason, keeping him in line with fellow offensive weapons like Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle, then adding SMU wideout Danny Gray, a speedster who can help take the top off defenses.
Sure, there are questions about the offensive line, and Lance’s limited on-field experience will remain a concern.
He has the weaponry, though.
Trey Lance among those who make biggest leap in 2023
Again, we’re predicting here. But that’s the industry. Predictions are fun.
And we should predict Trey Lance being the quarterback who takes the biggest leap forward out of all those six quarterbacks covered.
Lance is clearly significant steps ahead of Davis Mills, and good enough evidence was revealed when the former helped beat Mills’ Texans in a must-win game for San Francisco in Week 17 last year.
Based on his own merits alone, Trevor Lawrence should be able to upend Lance, at least in terms of talent and experience, yet it’s hard to categorize Jacksonville as being notably better, offensively, than it was a year ago. So, while Lawrence might be the better quarterback overall, Lance would have the superior talent and coaching around him to make the bigger leap.
The same argument should be applied versus Justin Fields and the Bears, too.
That leaves Lance in a three-way battle against Mac Jones and Zach Wilson. There’s the real argument.
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Wilson’s supporting cast is upgraded, and he’ll enjoy consistency with the coaching staff. Same with Jones, albeit lesser notable improvements on offense. Yet Jones’ ceiling isn’t much higher than where he’s performing right now, and Wilson’s shaky rookie season means he’ll have to take a massive leap forward his second year to outpace Lance.
Comparing where the 49ers are now versus the Jets’ prospects for a successful 2022 campaign, one would likely have to side with Lance and the Niners on that one.
So, if you had to bet, it’s shaping up to be Lance who winds up making the most substantial leap out of all the 2021 rookie quarterbacks who are poised to start for their respective teams this upcoming season.
Good news for San Francisco, at least we hope.