5 things Trey Lance revealed during 49ers win vs. Texans

Shaky at times and off to a slow start, 49ers rookie quarterback Trey Lance nevertheless showed plenty of positives in the Week 17 win over the Texans.

It would have been foolish to expect San Francisco 49ers rookie quarterback Trey Lance to suddenly pop in the Week 17 game against the Houston Texans and look like a Pro Bowl-caliber signal-caller with three years of experience under his belt.

Lance started off slow, showing all the signs of a first-year player who had just six quarters of full-time action this season and hadn’t played much at all since his lone year as a collegiate starter at North Dakota State back in 2019.

He probably wasn’t aided too much by the feeling-out process with head coach Kyle Shanahan, who seemed initially unable to correctly dial up a game plan that would suit Lance’s abilities or, at the very least, wouldn’t be too overly protective.

Yet that all changed on the Niners’ final drive of the first half, culminating in Lance leading the offense to score their first points on a field goal before halftime.

From that point on, Lance looked like a quality rookie by all means.

Let’s take a look at some specific things, both good and bad, Lance showcased in San Francisco’s 23-7 home win over Houston.

No. 5: Trey Lance has Kyle Shanahan’s trust in 2-minute drills

Perhaps it had a little to do with the fact Houston isn’t very good, offensively. But in previous weeks, including the 49ers’ Week 16 loss to the Tennessee Titans, Shanahan would frequently run out the clock if he had possession in advance of halftime, particularly with Jimmy Garoppolo at quarterback.

Not so with Lance, although that early 7-0 deficit probably sparked some things, too.

This breakdown from NFL Network’s Brian Baldinger highlights the six-play, 56-yard drive that lasted 38 seconds and culminated with a field goal by kicker Robbie Gould to get the Niners on the board.

Considering San Francisco was to receive the second-half kickoff, it wouldn’t have been shocking at all to see Shanahan go with some basic kneel-downs to prevent Lance from doing any more damage.

Instead, Shanahan let Lance be aggressive in that situation, something not common over the years with Garoppolo.

No. 4: Trey Lance is learning to navigate pressure better

Let’s go all the way back to Trey Lance’s first NFL start, not the regular season but in the preseason against the Kansas City Chiefs when defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo brought all kinds of heat to frustrate the rookie last August.

Lance took four sacks in that game, roughly two quarters of exhibition play, looking completely overwhelmed with mastering pressure.

During Lance’s lone regular-season start in 2021, a Week 5 loss to the Arizona Cardinals, he took only two sacks but frequently had to rely on his scrambling abilities instead of extending plays and looking down the field for receiving targets.

Again, it’s important to acknowledge the Texans don’t exactly boast a prolific pass rush. But Lance was sacked only once on a blitz where the right side of the 49ers offensive line was completely bullied over. On top of that, Lance was hit just twice in traditional drop-back-to-pass quarterback hits.

You can get an idea of Lance navigating the pocket much better in the video below:

There were designed runs, yes. But Lance also cut down on his previous tendencies of merely scrambling when a first or second read was covered.

That’s an awfully good sign of maturation.

No. 3: Trey Lance still has to work on some ball placement

As is the case with many young quarterbacks, Trey Lance is going to remain a work in progress in many different areas, and learning where he can go with the ball and how he can fit passes through tight windows will be an essential part of his development.

There were some awfully good touch passes in Week 17, particularly one for wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk for a 43-yard catch-and-run reception where Lance fit the pass nicely between two defenders.

Yet there were also the mistakes, namely the interception thrown on an attempt for tight end George Kittle, where the pass was merely tossed short and ended up in the hands of Texans cornerback Desmond King:

https://twitter.com/HoustonTexans/status/1477760557231058944

A bit more elevation, and that’s a completion to Kittle for a big gain.

Lance nearly tossed another interception, only to luckily have it turn into a tip-drill reception by Aiyuk along the sidelines. And there’ll be some criticisms of Lance missing wide receiver Deebo Samuel wide open in the flat in the red zone.

But it’s hard to ignore the fact Lance got better with his passing placement as the game moved along.

Hopefully, that trend only continues.

No. 2: Trey Lance isn’t afraid to throw outside the numbers

One of the many limitations Jimmy Garoppolo has shown over his career is his preference for throwing over the middle of the field, perhaps partially explaining why Kyle Shanahan doesn’t ask him to always be aggressive on two-minute drills before halftime when passes to the sidelines are frequently necessary.

Trey Lance, however, didn’t shy away from passing outside the numbers, and his Week 17 Next Gen Stats passing chart reveals this in full:

Seven attempts outside the numbers beyond the line of scrimmage, albeit one going for an interception and another falling incomplete.

But the positive takeaway from this aspect is the fact the Niners offense will be able to open up even more if Lance is able to work this area of the field well.

On the flip side, as teams have often done against Garoppolo, defenses won’t be able to cheat towards the middle of the field as long as these kinds of passes are in play.

No. 1: Metrics are recognizing 49ers have something in Trey Lance

In the analytics-driven world that is modern-era football, it’s impossible to look at Trey Lance’s standard stat line (a pretty good one, for what it’s worth: 16-of-23 for 249 yards, two touchdowns, one interception and a 116.0 passer rating) without taking another look at the metrics and analytics.

Perhaps the biggest shocker of them all is courtesy of Football Outsiders, as Bryan Knowles broke down where Lance’s efforts in DVOA matched up, both against 2021 rookie quarterbacks and the league as a whole:

Football Outsiders only ranks quarterback DVOA with a minimum 200 passing attempts, so Lance’s 71 attempts on the year are nowhere near enough.

Still, it’s worth recognizing the reality of San Francisco’s quarterbacking situation: Lance is showing why the 49ers aggressively drafted him, understanding how Jimmy Garoppolo can neither consistently throw deep down the field or outside the numbers.

And this Next Gen Stats reveal from Week 17 is telling, too:

Lance did both of those things on Sunday, and the net results were overwhelmingly positive.

The analytics don’t say everything, but they do reveal why the Niners are onto something here with Lance.

And if his progression continues upward, it’ll be a well-rewarded decision to make that switch under center.