Why Trey Lance takes biggest leap of all second-year quarterbacks

Context for Trey Lance, other 2nd-year QBs in 2022

Sure, at some point, we’re going to have to admit one or more of the 2021 rookie quarterbacks now starting are better than the others. Both in terms of physical abilities and development at the pro level.

However, in the “nurture versus nature” argument of adopting collegiate quarterbacks to the NFL ranks, there’s no such thing as equal.

Merely saying the Jaguars or Jets will make non-fans of those two teams chuckle a bit, as both the Jags and Gang Green have been mired in years of mediocrity. Heck, not even mediocrity. Laughingstock-crity sounds better.

Trevor Lawrence and Zach Wilson face two different paths

Lawrence was the sure-thing pick in 2021, except his rookie season was a complete loss under the disaster that was former head coach Urban Meyer.

As most San Francisco fans can attest (they remember quarterback Alex Smith’s first few years), changing offensive systems frequently early on isn’t a good plan for success, and those fans will scoff at anything Jacksonville general manager Trent Baalke does.

The Jags overspent on wide receiver Christian Kirk and Zay Jones while adding tight end Evan Engram and then using three of their first four NFL Draft picks on defensive talent.

Wilson, meanwhile, should be thankful the Jets added a stud at wide receiver in Garrett Wilson, then grabbed two offensive standouts at their respective positions on day two, running back Breece Hall and tight end Jeremy Ruckert.

Of the first two quarterbacks taken in 2021, Wilson has to be the one feeling happiest about his team’s direction.

Mac Jones is fine, and that’s all he’ll ever be

Not totally surprisingly, Mac Jones ended up being the most productive and efficient of all the quarterbacks taken in Round 1. He finished with a 67.6 completion percentage, passing for 3,801 yards with 22 touchdowns against 13 interceptions.

The New England Patriots beefed up his receiving arsenal, adding former Miami Dolphins wideout DeVante Parker before grabbing fellow wideout Tyquan Thornton in Round 2 of the draft.

Jones easily had the highest floor but the lowest ceiling of all the first-round quarterbacks last year, and he’s already close to reaching where he’ll be at the top.

Nothing wrong with that, but it’s nothing that suggests a massive leap in year two either.

Justin Fields, Davis Mills in the doldrums?

Like the Jaguars, the Bears didn’t exactly do Justin Fields any favors by changing up the coaching staff (although getting rid of head coach Matt Nagy was a must-do item).

That could hurt his development. But passing on the need to reinforce the receiving corps around Fields after bidding farewell to wide receiver Allen Robinson is a shaky decision.

As for Davis Mills? Well, former Alabama wide receiver John Metchie is a nice addition from Round 2, and the speedy Brandin Cooks is still the No. 1 threat. But Mills, who looks to be given a full shot at earning the long-term starting role in 2022 and beyond, still projects to be victimized by a slow, seemingly directionless Texans squad that’s going nowhere fast.

Both Houston and Chicago have a lot of problems to sort out, and those will hinder both second-year signal-callers a lot.

Trey Lance and the 49ers

So, where does Trey Lance fit into this equation?

Of the six quarterbacks mentioned, Lance is the only one with the two lone starts. And that was the 49ers’ plan all along, letting him sit on the bench for a year with the hopes of turning his exciting-but-raw skill set into a bona fide force.

Whether or not that plan actually works is anyone’s guess at this point, but one could make the argument the Niners have the best supporting cast out there for a young quarterback.

Despite his wishes, San Francisco didn’t let All-Pro wide receiver Deebo Samuel go via trade this offseason, keeping him in line with fellow offensive weapons like Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle, then adding SMU wideout Danny Gray, a speedster who can help take the top off defenses.

Sure, there are questions about the offensive line, and Lance’s limited on-field experience will remain a concern.

He has the weaponry, though.