The 49ers gave linebacker Fred Warner a five-year, $95 million contract that reset the market. Niner Noise explains why he is worth every penny.
Contracts and contract extensions in the NFL are perhaps the most unique of any sport. Because of a hard cap, partially guaranteed contracts, and no max contract limit, any player could be conceivably paid any amount any year. The guiding principle of contracts then becomes a keyword every football fan has heard at least once: positional value.
This buzzword means a lot when it comes to contracts. It’s why a second-tier edge rusher might be paid as much as a top-tier guard, or why no matter what, tight ends will be paid less than wide receivers. Positional value becomes the guideline for how to shape contracts for players.
Sometimes, though, players come along who fundamentally break the mold of what their position can do, and as a result, they get paid beyond the boundaries of their position.
The San Francisco 49ers went through a similar situation with George Kittle, where they ended up paying him more than any tight end, but still less than the top-tier receivers. This breakdown illustrates how the Niners ended up still getting a discount with that contract.
Now, the same thing has come up with Fred Warner, the All-Pro middle linebacker the 49ers drafted out of the third round in 2018.
Durable and consistently improving every year in the NFL, Warner made a clear case as to why he is the best off-ball linebacker in the NFL. But traditionally, off-ball linebackers have been severely undervalued on defenses, making Warner’s $19 million a year annual average value on his new contract stick out like a sore thumb.
While this might be true for any old middle linebacker, Warner is different. His transcendence and makeup justify this contract for him, regardless of position.
Let’s see how.
Fred Warner’s durability with 49ers
This will be brief, but the most important ability is availability, and unlike several key members of the 49ers, Fred Warner is available constantly.
Freak injuries, like torn ACLs or Achilles, are largely unavoidable, but there is proof that some athletes are simply more injury-prone than others (h/t The Atlantic).
Warner has played and started all 48 games possible during his career. He’s played, during those games, at a high level, and additionally he doesn’t miss many snaps in those games, if any.
This in and of itself is not the reason to break positional value, but for a team that has struggled with injuries, there is a significant value in spending on a player who will be available no matter what.
Fred Warner’s leadership
Another of those traits that might not justify going past positional value but absolutely matter, Fred Warner has grown into the leader of the defense, and his leadership has to be accounted for.
Although talent is the most important thing in football, chemistry within the locker room matters, and Warner has been a consummate professional whose work has inspired many. The biggest proof is the reaction from his teammates, former and current, following his contract extension.
Warner has been a class act, on and off the field, and although the 49ers proved that they view contract extensions with a cold eye for business, such as when they made the strategic decision to trade now-Indianapolis Colts defensive tackle DeForest Buckner, believing they could draft his replacement and instead use the money to pay for other Niners like Arik Armstead, Jimmie Ward, and George Kittle, it helps that they spent on a player who has been a defensive stalwart and major presence.
ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported that “[the 49ers] believe that Warner embodies all the traits they are looking for on and off the field.”
Fans would have to agree.
Fred Warner’s game-breaking ability
This is what really matters to the 49ers, even if the other two traits have value.
Fred Warner broke the off-ball linebacker market because he does things other off-ball linebackers are incapable of doing, and he does them at a high level.
Warner’s counting stats, while exceptional, actually underrate his ability because the generic stats people go towards for off-ball linebackers are volume-dependent. To be able to register a tackle, you need to be in the vicinity the ball is caught or ran towards. Warner’s lower tackle count is indicative not of his lack of ability, but rather his exceptional coverage ability.
Nearly all off-ball linebackers who are worth their salt can fill run gaps and shoot the hole, diagnosing plays and tackling carriers. But that’s no longer what makes a linebacker good. Coverage ability is what determines whether a linebacker should be paid.
The 49ers, in their core defensive scheme under former coordinator Robert Saleh, are a Seattle Seahawks-type Cover 3 team. This scheme minimizes defense on the outside, expecting the corners to be able to take the sidelines without much safety help and furthermore expecting the single-high free safety to erase any mistakes. That allows the defensive to overload the short and intermediate middle of the field, where a linebacker typically roams.
This is what the 49ers typically ran.
However, last year, Saleh moved heavily away from the Cover 3 system into more quarters or Cover 2 looks. In this case, both safeties stay upfield, and the intermediate middle no longer has the same overload.
This breakdown from Bleacher Report’s Matt Bowen helps visualize and explain this idea.
This shift was caused in part by a need for more defensive pressure beyond the front four, because of injuries, as well as a shift towards maximizing the secondary of the 49ers, but it worked primarily because of one man: Warner.
San Francisco 49ers
Warner’s coverage abilities allowed him to functionally seal off the middle of the field, erasing a key aspect of the quarterback’s game. This wasn’t just against running backs and linebackers either; this would be against wide receivers as well.
By being able to take away so much of an offense’s game plan with just one player, Saleh could focus heavily on the outside with his coverages and support other players. Much like a star edge rusher allows a defensive coordinator to get away with only rushing four players, Warner allowed Saleh to shift his coverages.
Advanced stats back up this idea Warner’s coverage was beyond the wildest expectations for a linebacker. Warner was the fourth-best coverage player in the NFL, per Next Gen stats (h/t NFL.com).
Not the fourth-best linebacker, the fourth-best overall.
That’s unfathomable production from the position. He allowed only a 64.1 passer rating when thrown at along with a catch rate 16.8 percent below expectation. Again, as a linebacker.
Warner has not been given as many opportunities to rush the passer, but his blitzing ability is also quality, providing another wrinkle for the 49ers to use next year. But, Warner is worth every penny because he fundamentally changes the way an offense can attack the 49ers and how the defense can get set up.
He transcends his position.
There are few players who are good enough to warrant breaking contractual norms. Warner is one of them. There are only a handful of NFL players capable of fundamentally changing the complexion of a game by their mere presence, and the 49ers just locked up one of them for the forseeable future.