49ers: Analyzing George Kittle’s value following contract extension

The 49ers re-signed star tight end George Kittle to a monster extension. Niner Noise takes a look at whether the deal truly accounts for his impact.

San Francisco 49ers tight end George Kittle was massively underpaid.

With his current salary of $2.2 million, escalated because of his record-breaking performance in the last two years, Kittle made less than either of the two first-round picks the Niners selected this year, defensive tackle Javon Kinlaw and wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk.

Without question, Kittle deserved a new contract.

And the 49ers took care of him in record-breaking style, inking Kittle to a five-year, $75 million extension that will keep the league’s best tight end with the Niners for the foreseeable future, despite the potential issues it may cause with the salary cap. The AAV (average annual value) of the contract at $15 million blows past the previous contracts for tight ends.

However, for Kittle, that was to be expected.

After all, Kittle’s contributions for San Francisco have been extraordinary. From breaking the single-season tight end receiving record to the nearly 2.0 YPC (yards per carry) drop in the rushing game when he left the field, Kittle has transcended the expected of a tight end. He’s that good.

In fact, Kittle’s agent reportedly told Michael Silver of NFL Network (h/t Bleacher Report) he doesn’t “care about the tight end market. [He’s] being paid to do a George Kittle deal.”

With such a drastic increase from his peers, it seems ridiculous to say Kittle’s current contract may not adequately compensate him for his abilities. But that may very well be the case. So to find out if the 49ers might have somehow gotten a steal here, we need to compare Kittle to players who best demonstrate his abilities.

Comparing wide receivers to 49ers TE George Kittle

Comparing other positions to George Kittle is a uniquely challenging effort simply because he impacts the game in more facets than any one position. The overall impact of a running back is probably the most similar to that of Kittle’s simply because a good back will impact the run game, pass game, and pass protection, but even that comparison only goes so far.

So to begin this comparison, here are tables showing the receiving statistics of four players over the last three years:

Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 8/12/2020.

Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 8/12/2020.

Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 8/12/2020.

Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 8/12/2020.

There’s a lot of statistics there, so if you don’t want to look at all of them in depth, here’s the basic run-down. Those four players consist of Kittle and three receivers who are in the upper echelon of the NFL: the New Orleans Saints’ Michael Thomas, the Arizona Cardinals’ DeAndre Hopkins, and the Atlanta Falcons’ Julio Jones.

Now, it’s clear from the statistics Player 1 doesn’t have the same counting stats as the other three players, though the gap in the last two years isn’t as large as anticipated.

Player 1 is Kittle, Player 2 is Thomas, Player 3 is Hopkins, and Player 4 is Jones.

Just looking at the raw stats, Kittle lags significantly behind the three receivers in touchdowns, which is a noted weakness of the star tight end. Kittle’s catch percentage is on par, if not above Jones and Hopkins but behind Thomas, his first downs also lag behind, and the biggest sign, his targets and receptions are quite behind.

By this, there is an argument to be made Kittle is not nearly as valuable in the receiving game as these three receivers. And while his touchdowns are lacking, looking closer at their production can show a different story.

Over the course of his three-year career, Kittle has averaged 9.6 yards per target and 13.6 yards per reception, which takes into account his rookie year which involved him much less frequently than these last two years of his emergence. He had only 306 targets. While it may seem wrong to include Kittle’s rookie year that has not been indicative of his performance recently, keeping it helps shows a full picture.

Because of the tendency of the 49ers to use their rushing attack more often than other teams, and because of the success of it, Kittle doesn’t get the number of targets a bona fide No. 1 receiver in another offense would. But using the yards-per-target metric, there is a way to try and predict what his offensive impact in terms of yards would be if he was given WR1 reps.

Thomas had 481 targets over the last three years with 9.1 yards per target. Hopkins had 487 targets with 8.4 yards per target, and Jones had 475 targets with a 9.5 yards per target.

Taking the average of these three target amounts and multiplying it by Kittle’s 9.6 yards per target gives a crude representation of what his impact could be if he was given the volume like the top receivers of the league. With this calculation, Kittle would have gained 4,617 yards over the course of his career or almost 1,200 yards more than his current average.

And even if we removed the first year and calculated just using targets the last two years, when Kittle would have deserved the high number of targets, the number stays high because Kittle’s yards per target move up to 10.0. He would have averaged 162 targets per season, 30 more than his record-breaking year and would have had 3,240 yards over the last two years, 800 more than his current stats. That would have put him 200 yards or so behind the combined yards of the season leader each year.

That’s, without question, elite production on par with the best receivers in the NFL.

So what does it mean? Well, for starters, it proves what 49ers fans have known for the last two years: Kittle has shown himself to be equal to top wide receivers. But it also shines a light on what Kittle’s value is. His efficiency is almost unmatched, and his production is superb despite limited opportunities. Given the receiving share of a top player, Kittle would easily be in the top three every year in receiving yards and receptions. Off this alone, a contract similar to that of Jones or Thomas could be justified. But Kittle’s value doesn’t come only from receptions.

Comparing 49ers’ George Kittle to tight ends and offensive linemen

While George Kittle’s targets are a bit low for a player of his ilk regardless of position, a lot of the difference between him and the top wide receivers of the league can be explained by the additional responsibilities Kittle has, as well as the offensive onus of the 49ers.

The Niners, despite having a solid pass game, also have an elite rushing attack. And when something works, there’s no reason to not use it as much as possible. Using the rushing attack, though, takes away passing snaps and targets for Kittle.

This would be a major problem if Kittle was a wide receiver whose impact solely came from the passing game. But another reason why Kittle’s impact is hard to completely understand is because of how he impacts the rushing game.

Kittle, during the season, had a run-blocking grade around 76.8 per Pro Football Focus, which would have ranked him higher than several offensive linemen. According to PFF, run-blocking grades are not position-curved but absolute. So Kittle’s grade would mean the same if he was a center or a tight end.

To reiterate, Kittle has the receiving production and efficiency of some of the best receivers in the NFL coupled with the blocking chops of offensive linemen considered above average. That combination, especially to a team like the 49ers who use both aspects of his game to the max, is incredibly valuable.

The final way to truly understand Kittle’s value is to compare him to players at his own position. Though it has been clear Kittle transcends the positional limitations of a tight end, especially with his combination, comparisons with his own position help understand exactly what is expected of a player like Kittle and how he goes above and beyond.

The first comparison is with Tony Gonzales, a Hall of Famer at the position. Gonzales was the peak representation of consistency as a tight end, which is impossible to compare to, but his production was very old-school, with low yards per target and a relatively low yards per reception. In that way, Kittle has gone beyond what Gonzales did.

However, that comparison is not very fair because the tight end position has changed so rapidly. More current players who would be a better comparison are the Kansas City Chiefs’ Travis Kelce and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ Rob Gronkowski.

Kelce is considered the primary contender for the title of best tight end along with Kittle. Kelce has had more targets than Kittle each of the last three years, along with more touchdowns, but his efficiency has been far below Kittle. His yards per target from the past two years are around a yard less than Kittle, and that doesn’t begin to include the large gap between the two players in terms of blocking. Kelce’s new contract, which came after Kittle’s was announced, puts him at a slightly lower AAV, but Kelce is older, so the contract comparisons are not completely fair.

The best comparison for Kittle, though this may seem a bit hyperbolic, is Gronkowski, the former New England Patriots tight end with a ticket marked for Canton whenever he chooses to retire for good. Gronk over his career has had roughly the same number of targets on a 16-game basis, he was the alpha receiver on his team, and his run blocking was exceptional. The main differences between Gronk and Kittle are touchdowns of which Gronk, especially in his prime, thoroughly outperformed Kittle, and availability where Kittle outshines Gronk.

So, Kittle is the best tight end in the league with the receiving abilities of a top receiver, run blocking of an above-average offensive linemen whose best comparison is to a Hall of Fame-caliber player many consider to be one of the best tight ends of all time.

What could that possibly mean for a Kittle contract?

What’s the verdict for 49ers TE George Kittle?

So, we’ve established George Kittle’s receiving numbers are on par, if not better than, some of the top receivers in the NFL and his blocking is better than starting NFL linemen. We’ve also seen how he compares to players at his own position. So what does it all mean?

Well, assuming the cap is at $175 million next year and going off straight AAV (which is not an ideal calculation but does enough to illustrate the key point) of $15 million, Kittle’s cap percentage would be 8 percent of what the 49ers are pegged to spend in 2021.

Rob Gronkowski, the tight end who best describes Kittle’s impact, had an AAV of $9 million which in 2018 (the last year he played with the Patriots) would relate to a cap percentage of a little more than five percent. Given the rising nature of contracts and the sudden drop of the cap due to COVID-19, this three-percent jump makes sense. It also shows Kittle is being fairly compensated relative to tight ends. The Cleveland Browns’ Austin Hooper, the last player before the Kittle-Kelce extensions to set the tight end market, received $10.5 million in AAV, which when matched against the current salary cap, also has a cap percentage hit of roughly five percent, and Hooper is not on the same level as Gronkowski.

However, Julio Jones, who agreed to a contract extension that will take effect this year, makes $22 million, which with a salary cap of $198.2 million, means his cap percentage is 11 percent, three percent more than Kittle. Michael Thomas, whose contract extension will fully take place in 2021, the same year as Kittle, will make $18 million for a cap percentage of 10 percent.

Kittle’s contract places him in his own place where he’ll make more than any tight end ever before but less than the top receivers in the league. Based on the limit a positional designation like a tight end has, this deal seems to be perfect. But as we’ve seen, Kittle produces like top receivers and offensive linemen, and he’ll be making less than both of them.

So despite breaking the bank for his position, yes, George Kittle will be had at a discount.