49ers 2021 ‘Who is?’ series: A swan song for Jimmy Garoppolo

Projected impact, outlook for Jimmy Garoppolo in 2021

There’s still an awfully good chance Jimmy Garoppolo starts all 17 regular-season games for San Francisco this season and, hopefully, leads the team deep into the playoffs. After all, at least at this point, Garoppolo gives the 49ers a better chance of winning games than Trey Lance.

Yet there’s a long-term aspect in play for the Niners here, too.

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Let’s say Garoppolo flames out early in 2021. San Francisco, without first-round picks in 2022 and 2023, along with being short its third-round compensatory pick next year, wouldn’t have much of a market at all for Garoppolo on the trade block. Still signed through 2022 and scheduled to make $27 million next year, no team would even entertain taking on that contract.

It’s likely the 49ers would have no other choice but to cut Garoppolo, still saving a good deal of cap space but getting nothing in return as far as draft compensation.

Yet if Garoppolo has a career-defining year, it’d be good for both himself and the Niners. They’d be able to move him much more easily, while Garoppolo’s sizable cap hit in 2022 would still be justified, and a suitor team would likely be much more willing to take that number on and potentially sign him to a new deal once his current one expires.

The reality, though, is likely somewhere in between.

Assuming he stays fully healthy, and even that’s a big “if,” Garoppolo probably winds up having a decent 2021 campaign, one which features some 2019-like numbers but where his overall efforts are hindered by his on-field shortcomings and the lack of wide receiver depth.

Perhaps there will be a trade market for Jimmy G in early 2022, but it won’t be anywhere as lucrative as San Francisco had hoped, meaning the team would have to settle for a late-round draft pick, perhaps, although still being able to clear cap space while putting faith in the heir apparent, Trey Lance.

And then it’ll be up to the fanbase to decide where Garoppolo belongs in the franchise’s legacy books.