While not much went right for the 49ers in 2020, there were a few statistical categories that were impressive but likely won’t carry over into 2021.
For those who don’t like to see what negative things may happen to the San Francisco 49ers in 2021, at least statistically, just go ahead and check out some areas where head coach Kyle Shanahan’s squad shows some improvement this upcoming season.
For some of the realists, this one’s for you.
A 6-10 finish is nothing to get excited about. Especially when one considers Shanahan has endured three losing seasons out of four since becoming the Niners’ head coach, and all three of those years have incurred 10 or more losses.
Yes, injuries played a massive role in determining San Francisco’s 2020 outcome. There’s no getting around that, and the law of averages suggests things will be much better in 2021, particularly after Shanahan and general manager John Lynch put a focus towards onboarding players this offseason with a better track record of health and durability.
All that said, the 49ers actually performed well, statistically, in some areas last year despite all the challenges and setbacks. Case in point, then-defensive coordinator Robert Saleh was responsible for a defense that ranked fifth best in the NFL, in terms of yards allowed (5,030), which is quite impressive despite the loss of many a key defensive contributor, namely EDGE Nick Bosa and cornerback Richard Sherman, for most of the season.
Saleh is gone now, opening the door for first-year coordinator DeMeco Ryans to leave his mark. Ryans’ learning curve, paired with the inconsistent nature of defenses in today’s NFL, likely points to the Niners not quite being that good, at least at preventing opposing defenses from moving the ball.
But these three other statistical categories could wind up seeing some regression in 2021, too.
No. 3: 49ers’ Third-Down Defense
2020 Stats: 35.5% opponents’ conversion rate, third best in NFL
One of the hallmarks of Robert Saleh’s efforts last year was generating some serious efficiency with his defense despite losing players like Nick Bosa, Richard Sherman and EDGE Dee Ford for much of the year.
While Saleh had to call on far more blitz packages than he otherwise would have liked, and San Francisco still ended up surrendering a good deal of points (390) last year, the 49ers were clear winners in one of the key areas where games can be won or lost: third down.
Offensively, with quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo returning, one should see a noticeable improvement on third downs, but the defensive efforts last season were almost other-worldly. Particularly in light of all those injuries.
Related Story: 3 items on new 49ers DC DeMeco Ryans’ to-do list
Yet a 35.5 third-down conversion-allowed rate, which ranked third best in the league in 2020, is awfully difficult to sustain even if the 49ers wind up getting back to full strength and staying there.
Simply put, it’s unsustainable.
Putting things into context, the Niners’ elite-level defense in 2019 ranked second best in this same category with a 33.0 third-down conversion-allowed mark. In 2018, though, San Francisco was way towards the bottom at 21st in the league with a 40.3 percentage here.
It took two full years for Saleh to proverbially “learn the ropes” and adjust his scheme, and DeMeco Ryans will likely be in a position where a good portion of the talent is there, yet the ability to replicate this elite-level stat will be a lot more elusive than it was the last two seasons.
No. 2: 49ers’ Red-Zone Offense
2020 Stats: 67.3% touchdowns in red zone, seventh best in NFL
Overall, the 49ers offense left a lot to be desired in 2020, namely with three different starting quarterbacks, a banged-up crop of ever-rotating running backs and multiple pass-catchers out with injuries.
Interestingly enough, though, the Niners made the most out of red-zone opportunities when they got inside opponents’ 20-yard lines last season, scoring touchdowns over two-thirds of the time and finishing seventh best in this crucial category.
Sounds great, right? And with a fully healthy array of weapons, namely tight end George Kittle and wide receiver Deebo Samuel, this number should stay about the same.
Well, perhaps not.
Historically speaking, Kyle Shanahan-led offenses have not done well in this area, as former KNBR 680 columnist Brad Almquist broke down before the 2019 season:
"The 49ers’ run-pass distribution [in 2018] didn’t deviate much from their typical ratio: they passed 53 percent of the time in the red zone, as opposed to 58 percent throughout the remainder of the field. Kyle Shanahan has had trouble finding the right formula. Despite his reputation as one of the NFL’s most talented play-callers, he has historically struggled in the red zone. His two 49ers teams have finished No. 27 and No. 32 in red-zone offense. In 11 years calling NFL offenses, Shanahan’s units have twice finished in the top-10 in red-zone efficiency. His best team, the 2012 Washington Redskins, finished fourth with a 61.8 percent success rate. One year later, they sunk to No. 21."
Those struggles carried over into 2019, too, where the Niners had the 20th-best red-zone offense (scoring touchdowns only 55.6 percent of the time) despite owning the league’s second-best overall scoring offense.
Odd. But telling.
It’s likely San Francisco’s red-zone efforts wind up being closer to the median of Shanahan’s historical numbers in this crucial area of the field, meaning a regression is probable.
No. 1: 49ers’ Penalties Against
2020 Stats: 85 accepted penalties against, tied for 10th fewest in NFL
Bad teams often incur a lot of penalties, yet that was one anomaly the 49ers didn’t suffer over the course of 2020 despite the poorish record.
It’s possible this is an endorsement of Kyle Shanahan and the coaching staff, who have cut down on the penalties that plagued the team quite a bit back in 2017 and 2018.
San Francisco 49ers
In total last season, the Niners allowed an average of 45.7 penalty yards per game, though, which was right in the middle of the pack. Perhaps that’s the stat that should be of most concern heading into 2021.
Rookies can be awfully susceptible to penalties early in their respective careers. Two, in particular, come to light: cornerbacks Ambry Thomas and Deommodore Lenoir. While neither is a shoo-in to start this season, any injury and/or performance attrition within the secondary could lead to one or both of these two seeing significant field time this season.
Both corners are of the press-man variety and weren’t exactly known for their zone-coverage skills at the collegiate level. And both had tendencies to get a bit grabby in coverage. While those traits may have worked at the NCAA level, a typical trend for players of this ilk is to see an increase in yellow flags early on.
It’s possible, perhaps even likely both Thomas and Lenoir wind up being penalty liabilities.
This could eventually work against San Francisco early on, which would prompt an increase in the number of penalties per game and for the entire season.