Getting healthy will be the 49ers’ first step towards having a better statistical season in 2021, and these three key areas could see a notable improvement.
The San Francisco 49ers‘ general lack of health in 2020 prompted head coach Kyle Shanahan and general manager John Lynch to rethink their offseason processes of player selection and addition.
Shanahan and Lynch went into free agency and the 2021 NFL Draft much more focused on players with better durability. Case in point, the Niners signed former Los Angeles Rams EDGE Samson Ebukam, who has never missed a game in his four-year pro career, to help alleviate the likely loss of oft-injured EDGE Dee Ford, who is still expected to miss serious time this year with a back injury.
San Francisco’s 6-10 finish last year can be attributed to many different things, and there’s no getting around the fact much of the disappointing results all led back to the injury factor.
But while getting healthy will help improve some key statistical areas in which the 49ers struggled last year, other notable moves and changes to the roster should also help matters, too.
A year ago, the Niners owned the NFL’s 21st-best scoring offense. Losing key weapons like quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, tight end George Kittle, wide receiver Deebo Samuel and running back Raheem Mostert, as well as having an ever-shifting cast on the offensive line, influenced the less-than-desirable standing.
As long as San Francisco stays relatively healthy, particularly on offense, one might expect Shanahan’s squad to score more points easily, thereby resulting in a 2021 finish higher than 21st.
But that’s just one general area in which the 49ers may improve. Here are three additional, more specific areas in which the Niners should statistically improve this season.
No. 3: 49ers’ Offensive Turnovers
2020 Stats: 31 turnovers, second most in NFL
A key reason behind San Francisco’s lackluster scoring offense last year was the tendency to turn the ball over.
Boasting 31 turnovers — 23 interceptions and nine fumbles lost — and averaging nearly two per game is a quick way to cut into scoring chances while also leading to shorter defensive stands which, in turn, helped influence the 49ers’ rankings for few yards allowed on defense but a sizable number of points surrendered.
More on that in a second, but one might see how cutting down on interceptions should be a key goal for Kyle Shanahan and Co. this season.
A big fix might have already happened: the Niners bidding farewell to No. 2 quarterback Nick Mullens, whose league-worst 3.7 interception percentage on 12 picks thrown over 10 games last year was a primary reason why San Francisco’s INT totals were so high.
Granted, Jimmy Garoppolo’s career-2.7 interception percentage isn’t great. But even shaving off five or six picks from last year’s ghastly totals should help drastically improve a number of areas on both sides of the ball, considering the hand-in-glove and complementary nature of the game.
More scoring opportunities, longer offensive drives and better defensive stands could all be the result of fewer turnovers.
And whenever rookie quarterback Trey Lance takes over, noting his 0.3 interception percentage in college, the hope will be for the 49ers to get even better in this particular department.
Related Story: Trey Lance can help cut down on 49ers heavy INT numbers
For now, though, Garoppolo being even slightly better at protecting the ball than Mullens should go a long way towards improving this ever-too-important Niners statistical category.
No. 2: 49ers’ Points Allowed per Drive
2020 Stats: 1.96 points allowed per drive, eighth fewest in NFL
There’s a number of takeaways from this particular stat, but it’s pretty provocative when diving into the details.
From the broader perspective, allowing less than two points per defensive stand is awfully good. And despite all of San Francisco’s offensive turnover woes last season, then-defensive coordinator Robert Saleh’s side of the ball was notably effective at limiting the damage by surrendering an average of just 1.96 points per drive while giving up an average of only 2.6 touchdowns per game (tied for eighth best).
Another plus-side explanation, which stands in contrast to the 49ers having the league’s 17th-ranked scoring defense, is the fact Saleh’s unit had the league’s eighth-best red-zone defense, surrendering touchdowns just under 58 percent of the time.
There could be a bit of a defensive lapse under first-year defensive coordinator DeMeco Ryans, yes. But with the bulk of impact defenders coming back, particularly ones like EDGE Nick Bosa, the offset could ultimately mean an improvement in points allowed per game.
Fewer turnovers on offense equate to fewer and longer defensive stands, typically resulting in less frequent scoring opportunities for opponents.
And as long as the Niners’ red-zone defense stays consistent where it’s been the last few years, it wouldn’t be shocking to see 1.96 drop to something in the range of 1.8, which would be significant.
No. 1: 49ers’ Third-Down Offense
2020 Stats: 77 first downs on 197 third downs (39%), 23rd best in NFL
Jimmy Garoppolo isn’t a lot of things. He’s not elite, nor is he a big-play quarterback capable of delivering the ball with accuracy far down the field.
But if there’s one area in which he’s been historically good, it’s on third downs.
Over the course of his career, Garoppolo owns a solid 64.7 completion percentage on third downs with him tossing a first-down pass 128 times on 269 third-down attempts — good for a 47.6 success rate. And in 2019, when Garoppolo helped San Francisco reach the Super Bowl, he completed 65 attempts for a first down on 130 third-down situations, and his 50-percent success mark here actually ended up leading the entire NFL in that category.
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Not surprisingly, the 49ers owned the league’s fifth-best third-down offense in 2019.
With Garoppolo missing more than half of the season last year, though, it’s not shocking the Niners’ ranking in this category dipped all the way to 23rd with the offense converting on third downs a mere 39.1 percent of the time.
Granted, Jimmy G losing one of his better third-down weapons from the past four years, wide receiver Kendrick Bourne, to free agency doesn’t help matters. But it’s offset somewhat by San Francisco’s efforts to reinforce the offensive line this offseason, namely signing veteran center Alex Mack and drafting a pass-protecting guard in Aaron Banks.
Hopefully, provided Garoppolo stays consistent with the numbers here so far in his career, the 49ers will see a noticeable uptick in third-down production. And in turn, the entirety of both the offensive and defensive efforts will improve, too.