3 stats in which 49ers may regress in 2021
By Peter Panacy
No. 3: 49ers’ Third-Down Defense
2020 Stats: 35.5% opponents’ conversion rate, third best in NFL
One of the hallmarks of Robert Saleh’s efforts last year was generating some serious efficiency with his defense despite losing players like Nick Bosa, Richard Sherman and EDGE Dee Ford for much of the year.
While Saleh had to call on far more blitz packages than he otherwise would have liked, and San Francisco still ended up surrendering a good deal of points (390) last year, the 49ers were clear winners in one of the key areas where games can be won or lost: third down.
Offensively, with quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo returning, one should see a noticeable improvement on third downs, but the defensive efforts last season were almost other-worldly. Particularly in light of all those injuries.
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Yet a 35.5 third-down conversion-allowed rate, which ranked third best in the league in 2020, is awfully difficult to sustain even if the 49ers wind up getting back to full strength and staying there.
Simply put, it’s unsustainable.
Putting things into context, the Niners’ elite-level defense in 2019 ranked second best in this same category with a 33.0 third-down conversion-allowed mark. In 2018, though, San Francisco was way towards the bottom at 21st in the league with a 40.3 percentage here.
It took two full years for Saleh to proverbially “learn the ropes” and adjust his scheme, and DeMeco Ryans will likely be in a position where a good portion of the talent is there, yet the ability to replicate this elite-level stat will be a lot more elusive than it was the last two seasons.