49ers snubbed on NFL predictions for best offenses in 2021

The 49ers didn’t crack a recent projection from NFL.com listing the 10 best-predicted offenses in 2021, but there’s some merit as to why.

According to NFL Network Analytics Expert Cynthia Frelund, the San Francisco 49ers are going to have an average, at best, offense in 2021.

Frelund just listed her predictions for the 10 best offenses in the league for the upcoming 2021 campaign, and the Niners were noticeably absent from the top-10 rankings.

Instead, her listings were as follows:

1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2. Kansas City Chiefs
3. Green Bay Packers
4. Dallas Cowboys
5. Buffalo Bills
6. Atlanta Falcons
7. Cleveland Browns
8. Minnesota Vikings
9. Arizona Cardinals
10. Tennessee Titans

One should note Frelund uses a win-share percentage, so it’s not as if these are mere speculative power rankings or anything like that.

But to see an offense helmed by a play-calling genius like head coach Kyle Shanahan miss out when ranked up against the likes of, oh, the Minnesota Vikings or Arizona Cardinals could seem a bit silly to a good chunk of San Francisco’s fanbase.

Yet there’s some merit as to why Frelund is a bit bearish towards what Shanahan will field in 2021.

Why 49ers offense might actually struggle a bit in 2021

Without diving too deep into Frelund’s win-share metrics (whatever formula for that has to be complicated), it’s possible to understand why Shanahan’s squad could encounter some difficulty on the offensive side of the ball this season.

Case in point, during the 49ers’ Super Bowl run in 2019, the offense ranked second in scoring (479) and fourth in total yards gained (6,097). That involved quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo tossing 3,978 passing yards, which ranked fourth best in franchise history for a single season, along with tight end George Kittle putting together a first-team All-Pro year.

Additionally, the Niners had the league’s best rushing attack when not factoring in quarterbacks (the Baltimore Ravens ranked No. 1 when including quarterback Lamar Jackson).

The injuries San Francisco suffered in 2020 have to be considered, but the bigger point is the team is now entering a transitionary phase where a number of key players, including Garoppolo, are being phased out. Jimmy G is going to give way to a rookie quarterback, Trey Lance, at some point sooner than later. And even if Garoppolo ends up starting all 17 games this season, it’s hard to envision him coming close to the near 4,000 yards he tossed two years ago.

Not particularly promising for a quarterback-driven league, thereby making some sense of Frelund’s predictions.

Related Story: 3 realistic goals for 49ers in 2021

The last three teams on Frelund’s list — the Vikings, Cardinals and Titans — all have All-Pro-level talent at skill positions. The Vikings with wide receiver Justin Jefferson and running back Dalvin Cook, the Cardinals with wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins and even the Titans with running back Derrick Henry, who rushed for over 2,000 yards last season and led the league with 17 touchdowns on the ground.

Aside from Kittle, the 49ers don’t exactly boast a proven, deep array of offensive talent. Are wide receivers Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk promising? Yes. But they’re not quite on par with the likes of Hopkins and Jefferson.

Plus, the infusion of other rookies, such as right guard Aaron Banks and running backs Trey Sermon and Elijah Mitchell, point to the gradual transition away from some of the veterans who helped propel the Niners offense to such lofty totals in 2019.

This doesn’t change the fact Shanahan is an offensive mastermind. And San Francisco’s offense could be pretty good this season either way.

But cracking the top 10 could still end up being a tall order.