Niner Noise explores some bold predictions for the 49ers’ 2021 rookie NFL Draft class, including what happens with quarterback Trey Lance.
The San Francisco 49ers are hoping all eight of their 2021 NFL Draft rookies wind up providing some sort of legitimate contributions over the course of their first seasons.
Yes, the expectation levels differ. Case in point, the Niners are hoping the long game proves to be more vital for their first selection, North Dakota State quarterback Trey Lance, whereas they’ll also hope Notre Dame offensive lineman Aaron Banks steps in right away and starts at right guard.
Other players, many of them selected on day three, aren’t necessarily pegged as starters. Rather their early expectations are likely to serve as key backups or special teams contributors.
Overlooked, perhaps. But nonetheless important.
Yet the expectation and reality can wind up being two different things, and sometimes the reality winds up exceeding expectations.
Let’s focus on that element, breaking down some bold predictions for San Francisco’s rookie draft class as the 2021 season draws closer.
Prediction No. 1: 49ers will start Trey Lance in 2021
For now, all signs are pointing to the 49ers letting Lance sit for his rookie season while he acclimates to the NFL game and absorbs as much as he can from the Niners’ current starting quarterback, Jimmy Garoppolo.
Head coach Kyle Shanahan has repeatedly leaned towards Jimmy G being No. 1 on the depth chart, and there are viable reasons for this. At the same time, though, it would be beneficial for San Francisco to entertain a quarterback competition for the starting job in training camp.
While that might not give Lance the job outright, it would at least narrow the gap, potentially.
Garoppolo’s injury history and inconsistencies on the field open up for the possibility Lance sees field time sooner than anticipated. And with the 49ers being in a position where they’ll want to win now, Shanahan won’t hesitate to go with the hand that gives him the best possible chance of winning games.
If that winds up being Lance at any point this year, either down the stretch or perhaps even as soon as Week 1, Shanahan will make the change.
Let’s predict Lance ends up starting at some point this season.
Prediction No. 2: Trey Sermon leads 49ers in rush yards
It’s going to be difficult for rookie running back Trey Sermon to ascend his way up the depth chart.
After all, it’s a crowded position with returnees like Raheem Mostert, Jeff Wilson Jr., JaMycal Hasty and Austin Walter all vying for roles, while sixth-round rookie Elijah Mitchell also finds himself in the mix.
Two of those names are likely to miss the 53-man roster cut. Yet Kyle Shanahan has never hesitated on rotating his tailbacks, and the third-round investment in Sermon suggests the Niners will want to give the Ohio State tailback as many opportunities as possible to make an impact.
This might not mean Sermon is tabbed as a starter. At least not right away. But considering Mostert shouldn’t be viewed as a bell-cow back, mostly predicated on an unfortunate injury history that dogged him last year, there should be plenty of carries to go around. And it also makes sense for Shanahan to try keeping Mostert relatively fresh for any postseason run, too.
That might make Sermon the beneficiary of chunk usage, either late in games when San Francisco is trying to run down the clock or even early when Shanahan is testing out opposing defenses.
Sermon might not have a lofty yards-per-carry average his rookie season. But he’ll wind up leading the team in net rushing yards anyway by the time the year is up.
Prediction No. 3: Elijah Mitchell earns 49ers kick-, punt-return job
This one is a bit more a wild card.
The 49ers have a number of options for their return game in 2021, including wide receivers Richie James and River Cracraft, although it might be more beneficial to see if one of the newly drafted rookies assumes the role instead. Particularly in the wake of this role being somewhat problematic the past few years, as well as the Niners offense averaging a starting spot on its own 27.4-yard line last year — 25th overall in the league.
Given how crowded San Francisco’s running back room is, one way Kyle Shanahan and special teams coordinator Richard Hightower can take advantage of Elijah Mitchell’s blazing speed is to put him on a return role.
Remember, Mitchell ran a 4.38 40-yard time at his pro day. And while his experience as a returner included just five kick returns his senior year, he did perform these duties at the high school level.
Serving as a return specialist might be the best way to take advantage not only of Mitchell’s speed, but his one-cut-and-go abilities, which may be demonstrated against all the chaos and sometimes randomness of kickoffs and punts. Mitchell’s ability to simply run by defenders might be that extra X-factor the 49ers on special teams.
Prediction No. 4: Talanoa Hufanga is 49ers’ starting strong safety by year’s end
The Niners wisely re-signed veteran strong safety Jaquiski Tartt to a one-year deal, although his notable injury history suggests he may not be able to fill out a full 17-game season.
With backups Tarvarius Moore and Marcell Harris unable to claim roles as potential long-term replacements for Tartt despite being given many opportunities to do so, it also made more than enough sense for San Francisco to draft USC safety Talanoa Hufanga as a possible upgrade over both Moore and Harris and someone who can fill the void if and when Tartt leaves in 2022.
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And perhaps that transition happens sooner than later.
While no one pulls for injury, the fact Tartt has missed 28 regular-season games the last four years is a realistic indicator he might not fully appear for a 17-game slate in 2021, meaning Hufanga could emerge as the favorite to take over at some point this year.
Hufanga made the most of his six games with the Trojans last year, logging four interceptions and three sacks while also serving as a hard-hitting pass-coverage enforcer in the intermediate areas of the field.
If those kinds of efforts transfer over to his NFL game sooner than later, Hufanga could easily wind up ascending to the role of starter much earlier than anticipated.
Let’s predict he does just that.