The 49ers’ efforts in the 2021 NFL Draft have received mixed results, so let’s take a look at grades solely based on value for each pick.
The San Francisco 49ers are hoping their 2021 NFL Draft class will be the most successful one under the tenure of general manager John Lynch and head coach Kyle Shanahan.
If for nothing else but their top pick at No. 3 overall, North Dakota State Trey Lance.
The Niners’ eight other picks don’t have to pan out in this regard. As long as Lance emerges as a superstar. In all fairness, the entirety of San Francisco’s 2021 draft efforts will hinge on that.
In all reality, though, any NFL Draft class can’t receive a full assessment until at least two or three years after rookie players are selected. Take the 49ers’ 2017 class for example. The two players taken in Round 1, defensive end Solomon Thomas and linebacker Reuben Foster, were viewed as defensive studs. Neither player came close to panning out, and aside from All-Pro tight end George Kittle selected in Round 5, few other key impact players made a serious impact.
Interestingly enough, NFL.com gave the Niners an A-grade for their draft that year.
Instead of trying to project rookie players’ impact in that regard, let’s try looking at San Francisco’s NFL Draft grades solely on value and whether or not the 49ers reached on players, either by getting them too soon, not needing them or neglecting on other positions of need.
49ers draft QB Trey Lance, NDSU, at No. 3 overall
If anything, Niners fans are rejoicing their team selected anyone but Alabama quarterback Mac Jones, and that’s fair.
Lance arguably has the highest ceiling of any of the top quarterbacks in this year’s class, but he’s also exceptionally raw, having last played a full season for the Bison back in 2019 and appearing in just one game in 2020.
Letting Lance develop as a backup for his rookie year is the right move. But San Francisco engineered an awfully big gamble by trading up to get him, acquiring the No. 3 overall pick in exchange for its own No. 12 pick this year, a 2022 and 2023 first-round draft pick and a 2022 third-round pick.
It’s doubtful the 49ers would have gotten their hands on Lance at No. 12 overall, and Shanahan didn’t want to take the chance of not having a chance, hence the aggressive trade-up to dictate the outcome. Yet considering Jones went at No. 15 to the New England Patriots, and Ohio State quarterback Justin Fields, arguably the third best quarterback in this year’s class, went at No. 11 to the Chicago Bears via their own trade-up, it’s fair to wonder if the Niners reached and minimized their value while giving up so much.
If Lance pans out anywhere close to his potential, no one will care. That’s the point. But it’s still a massive risk for a player with boom-or-bust status.
49ers draft OL Aaron Banks, Notre Dame, at No. 48 overall
San Francisco saved some of the value for its Round 2 selection of Notre Dame offensive guard Aaron Banks by trading down with the Los Vegas Raiders from No. 43 overall to No. 48, picking up an extra fourth-round pick they’d eventually use to get back into Round 3.
But Banks is something of a questionable selection anyway.
True, Banks is a mauling run-blocker and didn’t allow a sack in pass protection last year. That’s a plus, and the 49ers had to start thinking about upgrading their guard play sooner than later anyway.
Yet Kyle Shanahan has always put more emphasis on his centers and tackles over the years, and Banks isn’t so much of a zone-style blocker, rather more of a man-gap player who might struggle a bit in the transition to a new system.
And there’s a good chance Banks could have slipped either late into Round 2 or even early into the third round, suggesting the Niners reached a bit on a player on whom they could have maximized value by trading down again from No. 48 overall.
But the biggest setback for San Francisco’s value grade here is because Shanahan and Co. should have looked earlier at cornerbacks or wide receivers, both a bigger positional need with more immediate impact.
49ers draft RB Trey Sermon, Ohio State, at No. 88 overall
Based on value and need alone, the 49ers whiffed on their third-round selection of Ohio State running back Trey Sermon.
This isn’t to say Sermon was a bad pick and won’t have success in Kyle Shanahan’s offense. Sermon could end up being a stud for an outside-zone system, and if there’s an offense tailored to take advantage of Sermon’s skill set, it’s that of Shanahan.
Sermon still doesn’t have the ideal speed Shanahan covets, having posted a 4.58 40-yard time at his pro day. So it doesn’t appear as if Sermon will challenge the Niners’ top running back, Raheem Mostert, for the No. 1 spot on the depth chart anytime soon. And Sermon doesn’t have the vision or decisiveness to thrive on runs between the tackles.
And despite Sermon’s excellent finish for Ohio State during last season’s college playoffs, his production for the Buckeyes wasn’t overly inspiring. In fact, Sermon’s best year came back in 2018 when he was still with Oklahoma.
Most draft boards pegged Sermon as a third-round pick, which is fair. But San Francisco’s recent history of not using high-profile picks on running backs, paired with the reality Shanahan should have targeted a cornerback, wide receiver or edge rusher with the team’s first pick in Round 3 makes this arguably the most questionable pick the 49ers made.
49ers draft CB Ambry Thomas, Michigan, at No. 102 overall
The Niners’ decision to take Trey Sermon with their first pick in Round 3 created a possible ripple effect that ultimately cost them a chance to grab higher-touted cornerbacks with their second of two third-round picks.
Promising corners Elijah Molden and Ifeatu Melifonwu went Nos. 100 and 101 overall to the Tennessee Titans and Detroit Lions, respectively. Either would have been excellent pickups for San Francisco, which could lose veteran corners Jason Verrett and K’Waun Williams to free agency a year from now.
It might have been a better idea for the 49ers to grab either Molden or Melifonwu earlier in the round instead of Sermon, meaning the Niners ultimately settled on Michigan cornerback Ambry Thomas at No. 102 overall instead.
As far as need goes, Thomas is a wise pickup. San Francisco getting him now without having to force him into the starting lineup right away should help his development. Particularly with him not having played in 2020.
Thomas, 6-foot-0 and 191 pounds, is both feisty and aggressive, which works both ways. Playing physical can help frustrate wide receivers, but it could come at the cost of more yellow flags at the NFL level.
The 49ers ended up not having a fourth-round pick where Thomas likely would have been projected to go, and that hurts the value a lot.
But as far as the player is concerned, it’s not a terrible addition.
49ers draft OL Jaylon Moore, Western Michigan, at No. 155 overall
Picks for the offensive line are neither flashy nor garner the kind of attention for the skill positions. And the Niners already grabbed an offensive lineman, Aaron Banks, earlier in the NFL Draft anyway.
But after missing out on Round 4 picks, seeing Western Michigan offensive lineman Jaylon Moore fall into Round 5 had to be a positive sign.
The 6-foot-4, 311-pound Moore primarily played tackle at Western Michigan, but his value is increased by projecting as a guard at the next level, and San Francisco has a need to bolster the depth there behind Banks, Tom Compton, Daniel Brunskill and Colton McKivitz, potentially pushing one or two of those names off the roster by the end of training camp.
While Banks might not be seen as a perfect scheme fit, the same shouldn’t be said of Moore, who moves well in space and made a name for himself with his sideline-to-sideline blocking abilities.
As far as zone movers go, Moore is one of them.
Some draft boards pegged Moore as a late third-round pick, likely slipping into the early portions of Round 4. True, the 49ers had other needs they needed to address sooner. But Moore could find himself shouldering a vital load as a primary backup his rookie season, potentially working his way towards becoming a quality starter in a couple of years.
Not bad for a fifth-round pick.
49ers draft CB Deommodore Lenoir, Oregon, at No. 172 overall
The Niners should have focused on their cornerback needs much earlier in the NFL Draft, meaning they probably had to reach a bit to address some long-term prospects on day three instead.
That diminishes the value of Oregon cornerback Deommodore Lenoir a bit, who projects as a nickel back at the pro level after playing at multiple spots within the Ducks secondary.
San Francisco has a need there, particularly with K’Waun Williams a free agent in 2022 and also turning 30 years old before the start of the regular season. And with Williams missing eight games last year because of injury, finding someone who can fill the gap right away becomes a necessity.
Lenoir might not be elite at all, and he’s notably far behind some of the other top nickel corners from this year’s class.
At the same time, though, Lenoir is also a feisty corner who can thrive in a zone-style system as long as there are fellow defenders assisting him. It’s when he gets solely into one-on-one coverage where he’ll struggle.
Those negative aspects could have kept Lenoir from being drafted until Rounds 6 or 7, meaning the 49ers probably reached a little bit.
That said, Lenoir fills a need. And Pac-12 defenders have to shine considering the offensive nature of the conference, meaning Lenoir did enough to warrant consideration.
It was a reach, but not too bad of one.
49ers draft Talanoa Hufanga, USC, at No. 180 overall
Of all the Niners’ 2021 NFL Draft picks, one should make the argument USC safety Talanoa Hufanga was the biggest potential steal.
Hufanga only got to play in six games last season because of the Pac-12’s shortened year due to COVID. But, boy, he sure made the most of his chances, racking up 40 tackles, including 5.5 for a loss, three sacks, two forced fumbles and four interceptions.
In the nature of players who are both physical and intimidating, plus always being around the ball all the time, Hufanga surely possesses those traits.
True, Hufanga might not have blazing-fast speed. But he makes up for it with quality coverage skills and already projects to have a higher ceiling than San Francisco’s other two backup strong safeties, Tarvarius Moore and Marcell Harris, who have otherwise struggled in pass coverage over their respective careers.
Since Moore and Harris aren’t likely tabbed any longer to eventually replace the starting strong safety, Jaquiski Tartt, grabbing Hufanga could end up paying off dividends nicely in the long run.
There was a good chance Hufanga would go in Round 4, instead slipping into the back end of the fifth round, maximizing the 49ers value here while adding a player who could end up being a key playmaker for the Niners for a long, long time.
Great pick.
49ers draft RB Elijah Mitchell, Louisiana-Lafayette, at No. 194 overall
Two things knock the value down for San Francisco’s final pick of the 2021 NFL Draft, Louisiana running back Elijah Mitchell, at No. 194 overall.
For starters, the 49ers already invested highly in Trey Sermon earlier. And second, Mitchell was likely going to be a seventh-round pick or even a priority undrafted free agent.
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Perhaps the Niners reached a bit, yes. And that’s why the Mitchell pick doesn’t generate an A-grade.
That said, Mitchell could be far more explosive and exciting than Sermon.
Mitchell has the speed factor, running a 4.38 40-yard time during his pro day. And while the competition he faced while at Louisiana wasn’t exactly top notch, Mitchell’s 3,864 all-purpose yards, which included 597 receiving yards and five receiving touchdowns, speaks to his dual-threat potential.
It’ll be tough, at least initially, for Mitchell to get touches. Particularly with Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson Jr. already on the roster, while Sermon commands the higher investment.
Yet Mitchell could be the most purely thrilling of all San Francisco’s running backs, provided he’s able to use his speed and dual-threat abilities in a way to not just fit in with Kyle Shanahan’s offense but also to make it operate at an even higher level.
There are plenty of reasons to be excited about this pickup.