49ers NFL Draft 2021: Grades for each pick based on value

The 49ers’ efforts in the 2021 NFL Draft have received mixed results, so let’s take a look at grades solely based on value for each pick.

The San Francisco 49ers are hoping their 2021 NFL Draft class will be the most successful one under the tenure of general manager John Lynch and head coach Kyle Shanahan.

If for nothing else but their top pick at No. 3 overall, North Dakota State Trey Lance.

The Niners’ eight other picks don’t have to pan out in this regard. As long as Lance emerges as a superstar. In all fairness, the entirety of San Francisco’s 2021 draft efforts will hinge on that.

In all reality, though, any NFL Draft class can’t receive a full assessment until at least two or three years after rookie players are selected. Take the 49ers’ 2017 class for example. The two players taken in Round 1, defensive end Solomon Thomas and linebacker Reuben Foster, were viewed as defensive studs. Neither player came close to panning out, and aside from All-Pro tight end George Kittle selected in Round 5, few other key impact players made a serious impact.

Interestingly enough, NFL.com gave the Niners an A-grade for their draft that year.

Instead of trying to project rookie players’ impact in that regard, let’s try looking at San Francisco’s NFL Draft grades solely on value and whether or not the 49ers reached on players, either by getting them too soon, not needing them or neglecting on other positions of need.

49ers draft QB Trey Lance, NDSU, at No. 3 overall

If anything, Niners fans are rejoicing their team selected anyone but Alabama quarterback Mac Jones, and that’s fair.

Lance arguably has the highest ceiling of any of the top quarterbacks in this year’s class, but he’s also exceptionally raw, having last played a full season for the Bison back in 2019 and appearing in just one game in 2020.

Letting Lance develop as a backup for his rookie year is the right move. But San Francisco engineered an awfully big gamble by trading up to get him, acquiring the No. 3 overall pick in exchange for its own No. 12 pick this year, a 2022 and 2023 first-round draft pick and a 2022 third-round pick.

It’s doubtful the 49ers would have gotten their hands on Lance at No. 12 overall, and Shanahan didn’t want to take the chance of not having a chance, hence the aggressive trade-up to dictate the outcome. Yet considering Jones went at No. 15 to the New England Patriots, and Ohio State quarterback Justin Fields, arguably the third best quarterback in this year’s class, went at No. 11 to the Chicago Bears via their own trade-up, it’s fair to wonder if the Niners reached and minimized their value while giving up so much.

If Lance pans out anywhere close to his potential, no one will care. That’s the point. But it’s still a massive risk for a player with boom-or-bust status.