49ers NFL Draft: Reasons why Trey Lance makes sense at No. 3

Trey Lance is seemingly the 49ers’ third-favorite option at No. 3 overall in the 2021 NFL Draft, yet here’s why it would make sense to draft him.

Judging by most oddsmakers and NFL Draft pundits, the San Francisco 49ers are going to use the No. 3 overall pick on April 29 on either quarterback Mac Jones from Alabama or Ohio State’s signal-caller, Justin Fields.

Lost in the discussion somewhat is the third option the Niners have: North Dakota State quarterback Trey Lance.

It makes sense why. Lance is widely viewed as the quarterback with potentially the biggest ceiling out of the three but easily the lowest floor and having the biggest “bust” potential. Whereas Jones has a high floor, albeit a lower ceiling, and Fields is seen as the best playmaking option who’s also pro-ready, only a handful of analysts are tabbing Lance as San Francisco’s top target.

Fields is still the favorite. But there are reasons why it’s also a good idea for the 49ers to strongly consider Lance with the No. 3 overall pick.

49ers can develop Trey Lance their way and over time

One of the knocks against Lance is he’s had essentially only one year as a starter, 2019, and he appeared in just one game for the Bison in 2020 before the season shut down.

A non-factor in 2018, Lance’s 2019 numbers were nevertheless impressive. His dual-threat capabilities, combined with a strong arm and some acclimation with a pro-style offense, could make for a quality fit within head coach Kyle Shanahan’s offense.

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But the fact Lance hasn’t seen the field in any meaningful action for any length of time for well over a year has pushed the narrative he’ll need time to develop at the pro level.

Yet that could work to Shanahan’s benefit.

For starters, Lance will turn 21 years old shortly after the NFL Draft. As Niner Noise’s Akshaj Dwivedula argued, a team like the 49ers could take an approach many NBA teams take during their drafts: grabbing younger players earlier before they’ve reached their collegiate-development peak, banking on their raw skills and honing them in a pro-level environment instead of trying to mold them from deeper-rooted NCAA skills and schemes.

The Niners may have to be more patient with Lance than they’d have to be with the older, more experienced Jones or Fields. But putting Lance in an NFL system earlier could pay off in droves for a much longer period of time.

And San Francisco is in a position where it could do this.

49ers would have less of a media circus with Jimmy Garoppolo

Regardless of which quarterback the 49ers take at No. 3 overall, there’s going to be no shortage of speculation about when the rookie eventually takes over for the returning veteran, Jimmy Garoppolo.

If the pick is either Fields or Jones, anytime Garoppolo has a bad game or misses time with an injury, there will be a swarm of questions for Shanahan and Co. about making the forever switch to a rookie. Garoppolo would face no shortage of questions either, even if he plays well and stays healthy, and that could easily create a bigger headache than anyone within the franchise would want.

With Lance, the understanding would be much clearer: 2021 would still be Garoppolo’s year to start. There wouldn’t be as big a media circus constantly asking and pressuring Shanahan to put in a player like Lance as there would be if Fields or Jones was the pick.

And with Lance being two years younger than either other quarterback, the Niners can afford to take the long-term approach while still being in a position to try winning with Garoppolo right now.

It would still be risky. Lance might have the upside over either Fields or Jones. But it’s still anyone’s guess if the lack of experience and time since his last game could have forever hindered his development.

Fields should still be the pick, yes. Yet there’s an argument behind Lance being the selection, particularly if the long game is in play.