49ers NFL Draft: Cynthia Frelund thinks Justin Fields makes most sense

NFL.com’s Cynthia Frelund is among the minority in draft experts who think the 49ers grab quarterback Mac Jones. Instead, her pick is Justin Fields.

The bulk of NFL Draft pundits around the football world seem to think the San Francisco 49ers are honing in on Alabama quarterback Mac Jones with the No. 3 overall pick to be used later this month.

ESPN’s Adam Schefter was among them. So was ESPN draft analyst Mel Kiper recently.

But some others over at NFL.com aren’t necessarily feeling the same way, including NFL Network Analytics Expert Cynthia Frelund, who just broke down the analytics-based matches between the top signal-callers in this year’s draft and the quarterback-needy teams which would make for the best fit.

Frelund’s choice for the Niners? None other than Ohio State quarterback Justin Fields.

Using a win-share method, here’s what Frelund had to say about San Francisco’s ideal pairing with Fields:

"Fields’ ability to hit deep passes (50 percent completions on throws of 20-plus yards since 2019, per PFF, ranking sixth-best in the FBS), produce off play-action (146.4 passer rating in 2020, per [Pro Football Focus], third-best in the FBS) and connect on attempts of 10-plus air yards when his base is not set (55.5 percent since 2019, per my computer vision) is extremely promising for his NFL projection, particularly if he goes to a team like San Francisco with a strong offensive line.Also, the Ohio State product’s 630 rushing yards on scrambles since 2019 (with five TDs) create even more upside when paired with the playbook and personnel potential of the Niners. With Kyle Shanahan’s disguised rushing concepts, pre-snap motions and consistent fullback usage, San Francisco feels like a perfect landing spot for Fields."

The debate leading up to the draft seems to have centered on Jones and Fields being the 49ers’ top two options, along with North Dakota State quarterback Trey Lance something of a distant third.

Jones, while seen as a more pro-ready fit for a team like the Niners now, lacks the upper-tier playmaking abilities Fields has, not just with his rushing prowess but also the ability to escape the pocket and throw on the move.

For the most part, Jones was never asked to roll outside of the pocket at Alabama. When he was forced to do so, the results weren’t exactly outstanding, and the idea Shanahan’s offense would still be limited as it was with its current quarterback, Jimmy Garoppolo, doesn’t necessarily seem to change much with the idea of Jones under center.

Admittedly, Jones has a higher floor than Fields. But Fields’ ceiling is vastly higher than that of Jones.

And if San Francisco was willing to go all-in by trading up from No. 12 overall in the NFL Draft to No. 3, there’s little reason to proverbially “play it safer” now by going with the “safe” option in Jones.

On top of that, assuming Frelund’s analytical expertise has a lot of merit, the entire scheme fit between Fields and the 49ers backs up the idea going after him with the third overall pick in the draft would be the correct thing to do.