NFL Draft: How 49ers land QB Zach Wilson via Round 1 trade

The 49ers have almost no chance of BYU quarterback Zach Wilson falling to them in the NFL Draft unless they trade up like this.

Cue the San Francisco 49ers fan comments of “you’re an idiot, Peter” or “that’ll never happen.”

And you know what? You’re probably right in both regards. That’s fine by me. I’m still having fun thinking about this sort of stuff anyway.

In truth, the Niners probably won’t have any shot to land BYU quarterback Zach Wilson in the 2021 NFL Draft. Judging by general manager John Lynch’s recent comments about the current starter, Jimmy Garoppolo, San Francisco might not even be interested in selecting a first-round quarterback anyway.

But what do we know? Comments are just that until something actually happens.

At any rate, and while beating a proverbial dead horse, the 49ers aren’t going to have a shot at Wilson with the No. 12 overall pick in this year’s draft. Wilson, who is now largely viewed as the No. 2 quarterback behind Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence in this year’s draft class (and the No. 1 QB this year, according to Pro Football Talk’s Chris Simms), is easily a top-five pick. Perhaps even a top-two selection.

So if the Niners are all-in on Wilson, they’ll likely have to trade up to the No. 2 overall spot in a deal with a new ally, the New York Jets, who now employ former San Francisco defensive coordinator Robert Saleh as head coach.

Saleh won’t go easy on Lynch in terms of trade talks. Not in light of what promises to be a lengthy rebuild for Gang Green. But if both parties were actively seeking a trade scenario where the Jets and 49ers could make a move between pick Nos. 2 and 12 while settling some quarterbacking needs, let’s see what it would take to try making such a thing happen.

Given assumptions for 49ers, Jets heading into the NFL Draft

In order for this to work, both the Niners and Jets would have to be willing to explore options other than their current quarterbacking situation: San Francisco with Jimmy G and New York with its starter, Sam Darnold.

Garoppolo’s future has been speculated about enough, so let’s not dive any deeper there. But Saleh and Co. have remained awfully vague about Darnold’s future.

For any trade between the two teams to work, another “given assumption” would be the Jets have to be willing to pass up on one of the big-three quarterbacks in this year’s class: Lawrence, Wilson and Ohio State’s Justin Fields. It’s still possible they target a rookie quarterback, but that obviously wouldn’t happen until later.

The other “given” is the 49ers do want to make a splash move for a post-Garoppolo era.

Got it? OK, let’s try prompting a trade here.

49ers blockbuster trade proposal with Jets

Ready for it? No? Well, here you go anyway:

Expensive from the Niners’ vantage point? Absolutely.

Sending off two first-round picks along with a second- and a third-round selection in 2021 and 2022, respectively, is quite costly. But the Detroit Lions and Los Angeles Rams just swapped quarterbacks, Matthew Stafford for Jared Goff, while LA had to add two first-round picks and a third-rounder to acquire a 33-year-old Stafford.

Plus, there are likely to be plenty of other teams in the market for the No. 2 overall pick, too, only serving to drive up the price.

From a purely contractual standpoint, the deal is easy to do. With over $75 million in cap space, according to Over the Cap, the Jets can afford to take on Garoppolo’s contract yet still don’t have to commit to him long term with his current deal expiring in 2023. And San Francisco clears $23.6 million in cap space by trading Jimmy G.

More than enough to absorb Darnold’s $4.7 million post-trade contract, which is currently set to expire after 2021. And there still would be a window (May 3) for the 49ers to pick up Darnold’s fifth-year option, if they chose to do so.

Then, with the No. 2 overall pick, the Niners would have the inside track to land Wilson while being more than capable of absorbing an estimated $6.5 million San Francisco would have to pay a rookie signal-caller drafted at that spot in year one.

$11.2 million combined between the two QBs compared to Garoppolo’s $26.4 million currently owed for 2021.

The 49ers could then use Darnold as a bridge to get to Wilson, which fans would clearly hope would be sooner than later. But this prompts the question: Why would the Jets be interested in doing this?

Good question. I’m glad I asked it.

For starters, Jimmy G is an upgrade over Darnold. Argue that if you want, but you won’t find too many listeners. And the Jets may take a similar route to the rebuild Saleh and the Niners engineered back in 2017, building the team from the inside out. That’s usually a failsafe approach rather than placing a rookie quarterback into the fray without proper weapons around him.

On top of that, Saleh’s offensive coordinator, Mike LaFleur, worked with Garoppolo from late 2017 through 2020 as San Francisco’s pass-game coordinator. So the continuity is there. And if the Jets offense is going to be as complex as head coach Kyle Shanahan’s, Garoppolo has the mastery and understanding to do it.

At the very least, the Jets would get a temporary upgrade with the ability to move on from Garoppolo not too far down the road.

More importantly, the 49ers would get Wilson.

Again, this probably won’t happen. It’s all speculation to help bide the time between now and the draft itself.

Unless you’d rather talk about left-footed punters or backup long-snappers. If so, have at it.