How Nick Bosa affects SF 49ers free-agent plans in 2021

The SF 49ers may be cautious in NFL free agency this offseason because they’ll need to save money to extend Nick Bosa sooner than later.

While it doesn’t seem like it on the surface, the SF 49ers‘ actions towards NFL free agency in 2021 are heavily influenced by what they’ll eventually have to do with star EDGE Nick Bosa.

Granted, Bosa won’t be eligible for a contract extension until 2022, and he also has to prove he’s fully recovered from the devastating ACL tear he suffered early last season. Anything short of another Pro Bowl-caliber year from Bosa in 2021 could work in the Niners’ favor, at least in terms of contract talks, but the reality of the situation is Bosa could easily become the NFL’s highest-paid player in the not-so-distant future.

This isn’t necessarily great news for San Francisco, which is already looking at shelling out approximately $18 million per year on a much-needed extension for All-Pro linebacker Fred Warner in 2021. At the same time, though, Bosa’s importance to the roster is so paramount, it’s almost a foregone conclusion the SF 49ers will hand him a blank check when it’s time to negotiate a new deal.

And the Niners better start saving now.

Currently, according to Over the Cap, San Francisco has a shade over $13.1 million in cap space for the upcoming season. Without some roster alterations and cap casualties (those will happen), the SF 49ers will have between $5 million and $6 million after signing their rookie 2021 NFL Draft class and undrafted free agents.

That’s not a lot of money for the Niners to attack NFL free agency this offseason despite having nearly 40 players poised to hit the open market.

Where this all comes together is the fact San Francisco has historically carried over all remaining cap space at the end of one year into the next, and there’s no reason to suspect anything different in 2021.

So, putting things simply, whatever money isn’t spent this year can be applied to a would-be Bosa extension in 2022. At least that’s the hope.

A new Nick Bosa deal with SF 49ers won’t come cheap

As our friends over at Niners Nation pointed out, Bosa’s contract could end up commanding something in the range of $30 million per year.

That’s insane. But it’s not out of the market range.

The 2019 Defensive Rookie of the Year’s brother, LA Chargers EDGE Joey Bosa, received his new deal worth an average annual value of $27 million. And most talent evaluators thought Nick Bosa had a higher ceiling than his older brother, too.

On top of that, the market for soon-to-be 32-year-old soon-to-be Arizona Cardinals defensive end J.J. Watt was already commanding in the range of $15-plus million per year, according to ESPN’s Dianna Russini:

The moral of that story? If a team wants an elite-level pass-rusher, it has to pony up the cash.

There is some good news to all of this, though. While the 2021 salary cap is expected to drop as low as $182 million, the 2022 cap is anticipating a massive bounce-back with new television and streaming deals on the table. Plus, the SF 49ers should be able to clear some expensive player contracts between now and then, perhaps someone like oft-injured center Weston Richburg.

But the one drawback is the Niners won’t be able to boast a ton of rollover cap space from 2021 into 2022 even if they do make some serious roster alterations. The limited cap this year prevents that from being the case.

Because of this, San Francisco will likely have to start putting away some money now in a rollover, hopefully being able to use whatever amount generated — even after a Warner extension — to give Bosa what he’ll want and should deserve.

It won’t be easy. And it’ll probably force the SF 49ers to make some awfully tough contract decisions elsewhere.

But for a player of Bosa’s ilk, it should be money well spent.