NFL Draft: Should SF 49ers target quarterback Trey Lance at No. 12?

Could the SF 49ers go with a rookie quarterback in 2021 if the option is there?

Until Week 1 (and maybe even longer, if the Deshaun Watson sweepstakes extend into the regular season), there’s going to be questions about the SF 49ers quarterback situation.

It’s a fluid situation and it seemingly differs from week to week depending on how many quarterbacks are on the move (OK, maybe mostly just Watson with a touch of Sam Darnold and Teddy Bridgewater for good measure).

But one situation does have a chance to present itself. North Dakota State quarterback Trey Lance is a name linked to the Niners on occasion. If available at No. 12 overall in the 2021 NFL Draft, do the SF 49ers consider an audacious selection and draft a rookie?

There are actually some advantages to this.

SF Advantages

Large cap savings

If San Francisco chooses to cut incumbent quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, the team saves $23.6 million of the $25.5 million he’s owed for 2021.

Thank the genius of Paraag Marathe for that escape clause in there.

Lance, on the other hand, would be on a rookie contract for several years. The SF 49ers could then devote the savings to other considerations on the roster.

This segues nicely into the next advantage.

The SF 49ers offense perfectly suits a rookie

Head coach Kyle Shanahan is an offensive wizard who’s eventually going to win a Super Bowl, and it just so happens the hallmarks of his offense perfectly suit a rookie quarterback.

One of the biggest problems a rookie quarterback can face is being confronted with too much at too soon a time. Looking at quarterbacks like Darnold, Daniel Jones and Dwayne Haskins in recent years can show how this can derail a career.

But the Niners are a team that can win right now. Shanahan’s main hallmark involves utilizing the running game to take the pressure off the quarterback, and for the passing to involve a lot of play action and misdirection to freeze and confuse defenses while putting receivers wide open.

In short, the perfect environment for a rookie quarterback to wet his beak in the NFL.

But there is one big problem should Lance fall to No. 12, and it’s only fair to look at this, too.

SF 49ers Disadvantage

Trey Lance isn’t ready to start Week 1

The aforementioned point of the SF 49ers being ready to win now comes into play here. While cutting/trading Garoppolo and picking Lance saves a lot of money, the team would still need a veteran quarterback to start in 2021.

Lance is a physically gifted quarterback, there’s no doubt about that. But while he has the physical attributes for the game, he still has a long way to go towards mastering the mental side of the position.

Lance’s main problem is with his field vision. If his immediate read isn’t open, he’s slow to get to a second read and will rely on his (admittedly impressive) athleticism to either prolong plays or scramble away. This can work at the college level where he’s usually more athletic than others, but it won’t work if he depends on it at the NFL level.

It’s a high-risk, high-reward solution. But Lance is someone the Niners could consider as a cheap alternative to Garoppolo.

The only question is whether or not the team should pull the trigger if it gets a chance.