49ers NFL Draft: Trey Lance is most likely QB to fall to No. 12

The 49ers NFL Draft plans certainly involve quarterbacks. But if waiting until No. 12 is in play, NDSU’s Trey Lance might be the best option.

It’s anyone’s guess where the San Francisco 49ers NFL Draft big board has North Dakota State quarterback Trey Lance. And it’s even more remote a guess whether or not general manager John Lynch and head coach Kyle Shanahan are willing to make an aggressive move to grab a signal-caller with their first pick this April.

Especially in the wake of reports it would take a “big swing” for Lynch and Shanahan to move on from their current starter, Jimmy Garoppolo.

With the No. 12 overall pick, the 49ers NFL Draft plans could go in a number of different directions. As things stand now, though, the Niners are almost surely going to miss out on one of the big three from this year’s draft class: Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence, Ohio State’s Justin Fields and BYU’s Zach Wilson.

Lance, however, could be in play.

It was something Locked on 49ers Podcast’s Brian Peacock told KNBR 680, too, speculating that out of all the top quarterbacks in Round 1, Lance was the one who’d most likely be available.

It does make some sense. While the top-drafting Jacksonville Jaguars are all but guaranteed to go with Lawrence, things get tricky with the NY Jets’ No. 2 overall pick. Perhaps the Jets move on from quarterback Sam Darnold. Perhaps they don’t. The No. 3 overall-drafting Miami Dolphins could move on from their first-round investment from a year ago, quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, or they may not. The Atlanta Falcons, Detroit Lions and Carolina Panthers, teams all drafting ahead of San Francisco, could be seeking long-term quarterbacking options, too.

Keyword for all those teams: could.

So that might mean Lance winds up being in play. And that prompts the question: Would the 49ers pass up the opportunity to grab Lance?

49ers NFL Draft plans to include Jimmy Garoppolo and Trey Lance?

Lance has all the physical tools and traits teams would covet for a franchise-caliber quarterback. Those are the reasons why he’s being viewed as a top-15 pick.

But there are going to be questions about Lance starting just one season, 2019, before sitting out last year and only going up against lesser competition at the NCAA level.

And if San Francisco is going to ride it out with Jimmy G, does it make sense to use a first-round pick on a quarterback when the team’s Super Bowl window remains open?

It depends whether or not Shanahan thinks one of two things. Either Garoppolo can be a long-term answer beyond when his current contract expires after 2022, thereby mandating a new contract, or Garoppolo is at least a bridge to a point when the 49ers can address their quarterbacking needs sometime later.

The Niners could follow a precedent not unlike that of the Green Bay Packers in 2020 when they drafted Utah State’s Jordan Love in Round 1 despite boasting a future Hall of Famer on their roster, quarterback Aaron Rodgers. Yet that comparison is nowhere as equal, as Love was selected at No. 26 overall. Not at No. 12 where San Francisco could find itself landing Lance.

So that leads to the next question: Would the 49ers pass up on Lance if he fell to No. 12 regardless of Shanahan’s feelings about Garoppolo?

That’s a better question.

But Lance would have to fall to the Niners for that scenario to even happen.